上海市海洋经济可持续发展综合评价模型实证研究  

Empirical study on the Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Sustainable Development of Marine Economy in Shanghai

作　　者：李璟瑶 陈璇[1] LI Jingyao;CHEN Xuan(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋经济》2021年第3期38-47,共10页Marine Economy

基　　金：中国海洋发展研究会项目[CAMAJJ201807]。

摘　　要：近些年上海市海洋经济快速发展,成为上海市主要支柱性产业之一,了解上海市目前海洋经济可持续发展情况和发展协调性对于进一步提升上海市海洋经济实力显得尤为重要。因此基于系统论角度,从海洋经济、海洋科技、海洋环境、海洋资源以及社会发展五方面构建海洋经济可持续发展指标体系,运用主成分分析和回归分析相结合的方法对上海市海洋经济可持续发展现状以及各子系统间的协调性进行探究。研究表明海洋资源和社会发展与海洋经济分别处于基本协调和协调发展状态;海洋科技、海洋环境与海洋经济协调性差,成为阻碍上海市海洋经济可持续发展最重要的两大因素。基于以上结论,对上海市海洋经济未来发展提出政策建议。In recent years,Shanghai′s marine economy has developed rapidly and become one of the main pillar industries of Shanghai.It is particularly important to understand the current sustainable development and coordination of Shanghai′s marine economy to further enhance the strength of Shanghai′s marine economy.Therefore,based on the system theory angle,and from the five aspects of marine economy,marine science and technology,marine environment,marine resources,and social development to construct the marine economy sustainable development index system,the paper uses the method of combining principal component analysis and regression analysis to explore the status quo of marine economy sustainable development in Shanghai and the coordination between subsystems.The research shows that marine resources and social development and marine economy are in basic coordination and coordinated development respectively.The poor coordination between marine science and technology,marine environment and marine economy has become the two most important factors hindering the sustainable development of Shanghai′s marine economy.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward policy suggestions for the future development of Shanghai′s marine economy.

关 键 词：海洋经济 可持续发展 主成分分析模型 静态协调度 动态协调度 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]