IRI2016模型的TEC预测能力分析  

Analysis of TEC prediction ability of IRI2016 model

作　　者：钟慧鑫 肖艳鲁 冯建迪 朱云聪 ZHONG Huixin;XIAO Yanlu;FENG Jiandi;ZHU Yuncong(School of Civil and Architectural Engineering,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo,Shandong 25bOOO,China;School of Resource&Environment and Safety Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan,Hunan 411201,China)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学建筑工程学院,山东淄博255000 [2]湖南科技大学资源环境与安全工程学院,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《测绘科学》2021年第10期54-66,97,共14页Science of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41804032)。

摘　　要：为了研究IRI2016模型对于总电子含量(TEC)的预测能力,该文利用IRI2016模型计算的TEC数据与GPS-TEC、CODE TEC数据,分别从单站、全球和区域(高、中、低纬度)的角度对IRI2016模型预测TEC的能力进行了分析。首先,选取2004—2018年中的偶数年作为对比年份,在全球范围内选取5个代表性的测站,分别是位于高纬度的Nril站、Palm站,中纬度的Cedu站、Yssk站和低纬度的Bogt站,比较了IRI2016模型和GPS-TEC实测数据;然后,在4个测试年中,将IRI2016模型在四至点上的全球TEC预报图和对应的CODE TEC图进行了对比,并分别将高、中、低纬度地区的数据结果提取出来,绘制出CODE TEC与IRI2016模型差值的分布直方图。结果表明:从单站、全球和中高纬度区域的角度分析,IRI2016模型表现较好。但模型描述的全球TEC分布较粗略,灵活性不高,并且在低纬度区域范围内,模型数据与CODE TEC差值的均方根值较大,模型表现较差。In order to study the prediction ability of international reference ionosphere2016(IRI2016)model for total electron content(TEC),this paper used the TEC data calculated by IRI2016 model,global positioning system-TEC(GPS-TEC)and Center for Orbit Determination in Europe-TEC(CODE TEC)data to analyzed the ability of IRI2016 model to predict TEC from the perspective of single station,global and regional(high,medium and low latitude).Firstly,five representative sites:Nril site,Palm site,Cedu site,Yssk site and Bogt site in high latitude,were selected as comparison years in the even years from 2004 to 2018,respectively,IRI2016 model and GPS-TEC data were compared.Then,in four test years,the global TEC forecast map of IRI2016 model at four solstices was compared with the corresponding CODE TEC map,in addition,the data results of high,middle and low latitude areas were extracted respectively,and the distribution histogram of the difference between CODE TEC and IRI2016 model was drawn.The results showed that IRI2016 model performed well from the perspective of single sites,global and mid high latitude regions.However,the global TEC distribution described by the IRI2016 model was rough,and the flexibility was not high.In the low latitude area,the RMS value of the difference between the model data and CODE TEC was large,and the IRI2016 model performance was poor.

关 键 词：IRI2016模型 GPS-TEC CODE TEC 预报能力分析 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]