城市交通需求预测理论与模型研究综述  

Review of Urban Traffic Demand Forecasting Theory and Model

作　　者：刘丽华 王炜 华雪东[1,3,4] 李爱增 LIU Li-hua;WANG Wei;HUA Xue-dong;LI Ai-zeng(Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China;School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Henan University of Urban Construction, Pingdingshan 467044, China;Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies,Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China;School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China)

机构地区：[1]城市智能交通江苏省重点实验室,南京211189 [2]河南城建学院土木与交通工程学院,平顶山467036 [3]现代城市交通技术协同创新中心,南京211189 [4]东南大学交通学院,南京211189

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2021年第30期12804-12813,共10页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51878166);中国博士后科学基金(2020M671302);江苏省博士后科研资助计划(2020Z238)。

摘　　要：城市交通需求预测是交通学科研究的热点之一。对现代城市交通需求预测理论与模型进行了系统分析,重点围绕交通生成、交通分布、交通方式划分预测模型展开,对各模型基本原理、研究进展、传统模型及其改进、模型应用情况等进行了综述,最后总结了城市交通需求预测研究领域重点、难点,指出了未来发展方向。Urban traffic demand forecasting is one of the hot topics in traffic engineering.The modern urban traffic demand forecasting theory and model were analyzed systematically.Focusing on the prediction models of traffic generation,traffic distribution and traffic mode split,the basic principles,research progress,traditional models and their improvement,the application of the models in each stage were summarized.Finally,the key points and difficulties in urban traffic demand forecasting were summarized,and the future development direction was also pointed out.

关 键 词：交通需求预测 交通生成 交通分布 交通方式划分 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]