“十四五”时期环渤海港口下水煤炭市场价格预测研究  

The Prediction of the Coal Price of Ports along the Bohai Sea during the“14th Five-Year Planning”Period

作　　者：张毅 ZHANG Yi(China Shenhua Energy Company,Beijing 100011,China)

机构地区：[1]中国神华能源股份有限公司,北京100011

出　　处：《综合运输》2021年第10期101-106,共6页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：环渤海港口煤炭价格指数被称为我国煤炭价格的"风向标",价格变动影响煤炭行业以及电力、冶金、建材、钢铁等下游基础性行业的发展。在借鉴国内学者研究基础上,以煤炭价格形成机理为理论支撑,定性分析"十四五"期间环渤海下水煤炭产业链、供应链各环节变化对煤炭价格的影响,判定下水煤炭市场价格趋势。研究表明,"十四五"期间我国环渤海下水煤炭供需基本稳定但供应偏紧,供给需求都缺乏弹性,价格易涨难跌。中枢价位将会在维持在700元/t左右,最高可到1000元/t左右。The Rim-Bohai Sea Port Coal Price Index is known as the"weathervane"of China’s coal prices.The price changes affect the development of the coal industry and downstream basic industries such as electricity,metallurgy,building materials,and steel.Based on the research of domestic scholars and theoretically supported by the formation mechanism of coal prices,this paper qualitatively analyzes the impact of changes in various links of the Rim-Bohai Sea coal industry chain and supply chain on coal prices during the"14 th Five-Year Planning"period,and determines the price trend of the coal market.The research results have shown that during the"14 th Five-Year Planning"period,the supply and demand of coal in the area of Rim-Bohai Sea was basically stable,but the supply was tight,the supply and demand were inelastic,and the price was easy to rise but hard to fall.The central price will be maintained at around 700 yuan/t,with a maximum of around 1,000 yuan/t.

关 键 词：环渤海港口 下水煤炭 供需分析 煤炭价格 

分 类 号：F552[经济管理—产业经济]