新型冠状病毒疫情防控中的理论流行病学模型研究进展  

Advance on theoretical epidemiology models research of prevention and control of COVID-19

作　　者：张恒之 丁中兴 沈明望 肖燕妮[4] 彭志行[2] 沈洪兵[1] Zhang Hengzhi;Ding Zhongxing;Shen Mingwang;Xiao Yanni;Peng Zhihang;Shen Hongbing(Department of Epidemiology and Health statistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,China;China International Cooperation Center,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 210029,China;China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases,School of Public Health,Xi′an Jiaotong University Health Science Center,Xi′an 710061,China;Center for the Intersection of Mathematics and Life Sciences,School of Mathematics and Statistics,Xi′an Jiaotong University,Xi′an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,211166 [2]南京医科大学国际联合研究中心,210029 [3]西安交通大学医学部公共卫生学院中澳传染病联合研究中心,710061 [4]西安交通大学数学与统计学院数学与生命科学交叉中心,710049

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》2021年第10期1256-1262,共7页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(82041026、81673275、91846302);国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10715002-004-002、2018ZX10713001-001)。

摘　　要：新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的暴发给全球卫生体系带来巨大冲击,也为科学研究带来了机遇与挑战。理论流行病学模型可通过数学手段定量模拟不同情境和干预下的疫情发展动态,研究分析疫情流行趋势,并评估各类防控措施与疫苗策略的效果。理论流行病学模型研究为疫情防控提供科学理论依据,在这一年多的疫情防控中发挥了巨大作用。本研究对国内外针对新冠疫情开展的理论流行病学模型研究工作进行综述,总结理论流行病学模型在疫情防控应用方面的研究进展,为理论建模与疫情防控相结合提供参考。COVID-19 has brought a significant impact to the global health system,and also opportunities and challenges to epidemiological researches.Theoretical epidemiological models can simulate the process of epidemic in scenarios under different conditions.Therefore,modeling researches can analyze the epidemical trend of COVID-19,predict epidemical risks,and evaluate effects of different control measures and vaccine policies.Theoretical epidemiological modeling researches provide scientific advice for the prevention and control of infectious diseases,and play a crucial role in containing COVID-19 over the past year.In this study,we review the theoretical epidemiological modeling researches on COVID-19 and summarize the role of theoretical epidemiological models in the prevention and control of COVID-19,in order to provide reference for the combination of mathematical modeling and epidemic control.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 理论流行病学 动力学模型 趋势研判分析 风险预警 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.3[医药卫生—内科学]