唐山市机动车排放清单与减排经济效益研究  

Vehicle emission inventory and economic benefits of emission reduction in Tangshan

作　　者：王计广 桂华侨[1,2] 陈金潮 王志伟[5] 孙世达 杨志文 张潇文 毛洪钧 WANG Ji-guang;GUI Hua-qiao;CHEN Jin-chao;WANG Zhi-wei;SUN Shi-da;YANG Zhi-wen;ZHANG Xiao-wen;MAO Hong-jun(Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics,Hefei Institutes of Physical Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Hefei 230031,China;University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China;China Automotive Technology&Research Center Co.Ltd,Tianjin 300300,China;College of Energy and Environmental Engineering,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;Tangshan Environmental Monitoring Center,Tangshan 063015,China;College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院,安徽光学精密机械研究所,安徽合肥230031 [2]中国科学技术大学,安徽合肥230026 [3]中国汽车技术研究中心有限公司,天津300300 [4]河北工业大学能源与环境工程学院,天津300401 [5]唐山市环境监控中心,河北唐山063015 [6]南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300071

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2021年第11期5114-5124,共11页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42005108);安徽省优秀青年科技基金(1808085J19)。

摘　　要：基于唐山市机动车定期环保检测数据获取不同类型车辆的本地年均行驶里程,建立城区内典型车辆的"里程-注册年"特征曲线.采用车载排放测试法获取唐山市典型国Ⅵ阶段轻重型汽车实际道路排放因子.利用COPERT模型进行机动车排放因子本地化修正,建立涵盖不同排放阶段和燃料动力类型的唐山市机动车排放清单,结合唐山市路网信息,建立基于ArcGIS的3km×3km高时空分辨率网格化排放清单,并分析了国三及以下中重型柴油车(简称高排放车)不同淘汰与DPF排放治理比例情景下机动车减排与投入成本效益.研究表明,2020年机动车CO,HC,NO_(x),PM_(2.5),PM_(10)年排放量分别为92403.51,10034.53,70568.35,2036.51,2160.65t,其中:NO_(x),PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)排放主要来源于柴油车,分担率分别为92%,89%和89%;CO和HC排放主要来自汽油车,分担率分别为71%和73%.唐山市实施二环内国Ⅳ及以下柴油货车限行区政策后,二环内CO和HC年排放量削减率分别为22.41%和21.68%;而NO_(x),PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)污染物排放强度显著降低,年排放量削减率分别为78.60%,84.85%和84.79%.在高排放车淘汰与治理情景下,随着高排放车淘汰比例的增长,投入成本和NO_(x)年均减排量呈线性上升趋势,且NO_(x)减排效果更加显著,而PM减排辆略呈下降趋势.高排放车淘汰率每增长10%,NO_(x)年均减排量增加892.41t,PM年均减排量减少7.56t,年投入成本增加1.13亿元.Based on the vehicle regular environmental inspection test data,the local average mileage of different vehicle types was obtained,and the"mileage-registration year"characteristic curve of typical vehicles in Tangshan was established.The actual road emission factors of typical China VI vehicles was obtained by PEMS.According to localized correction of vehicle emission factors by COPERT,the Tangshan vehicle emission inventory covering different emission stages and fuel power types was developed.Combining with the road network information of Tangshan,3 km×3 km high spatial and temporal resolution grid vehicle emission inventory based on ArcGIS was developed.On this basis,emission reduction and input cost-effectiveness under different ratios scenarios of ChinaⅢand below heavy diesel vehicles(referred to as high emission vehicles)elimination and DPF retrofit were analyzed.The results show that the CO,HC,NO_(x),PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) annual emissions in 2020 were 92403.51,10034.53,70568.35,2036.51 and 2160.65 tons respectively,which NO_(x),PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) were mainly from diesel vehicles,accounting for 92%,89%and 89%respectively;CO and HC emissions were mainly from gasoline vehicles,accounting for 71%and 73%respectively.After the implementation of diesel truck restriction zone policy for China IV and below emission standard in the Second Ring Road,the annual CO and HC emission reduction rates in the Second Ring Road were 22.41%and 21.68%,while the emission intensity of NO_(x),PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) pollutants had been significantly reduced,and the annual emissions reduction rates were 78.60%,84.85%and 84.79%,respectively.Under the scenario of elimination and treatment of high emission vehicles,with the increase of high emission elimination ratio,the input cost and annual NO_(x) emission reduction showed a linear upward trend,and the NO_(x) emission reduction effect was more significant,while the PM emission reduction vehicles showed a slight downward trend.For every 10%increase in the elimination rate of high emiss

关 键 词：排放清单 机动车排放 年均行驶里程 定期环保检测 DPF治理 减排经济效益 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]