河北省农业秸秆资源利用政策动态模拟研究  

Simulation Study on the Policy Dynamics of Agricultural Rtraw Resources Utilization in Hebei Province

作　　者：王孟双 刘美玉 WANG Meng-Shuang;LIU Mei-Yu(Hebei University of GEO,Shijiazhuang 050031,China)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学经济学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《黑龙江生态工程职业学院学报》2021年第6期5-9,共5页Journal of Heilongjiang Vocational Institute of Ecological Engineering

基　　金：河北省教育厅在读研究生创新能力培养资助项目“河北省秸秆资源综合利用最优路径选择”(CXZZSS2021119)。

摘　　要：基于投入—产出方法构建河北省秸秆资源—经济—环境—能源系统动态最优模型,以模拟分析2017—2035年河北省秸秆资源利用、环境保护与城市经济增长间均衡发展路径。研究发现:(1)引入先进技术的环境综合政策系统对经济增长有促进作用,大气污染物质在减排20%的情况下,通过引入新技术和政策组合,2035年河北省经济总量达到8.06万亿元;大气污染物质在减排30%的情况下,2035年河北省经济总量达到6.4万亿元。(2)2017—2035年政府对秸秆处理技术共补贴454亿元,其中秸秆饲料压块技术14亿元、秸秆气化发电技术1.5亿元、秸秆食用菌基料技术320.5亿元、秸秆有机肥生产技术118亿元。Construct a dynamic optimal model of the straw resource-economy-environment-energy system in Hebei Province based on the input-output approach,simulate and analyzes the balanced development between straw resource utilization,environmental protection and urban economic growth in Hebei Province from 2017 to 2035.The study found that:(1)The integrated environmental policy system with the introduction of advanced technologies has a catalytic effect on economic growth,and the total economic volume of Hebei province reaches 8.06 trillion yuan in 2035 by introducing a combination of new technologies and policies under 20%reduction of air pollutants;the total economic volume of Hebei province reaches 6.4 trillion yuan in 2035 under 30%reduction of air pollutants.(2)The government subsidizes a total of 45.4 billion yuan for straw processing technology from 2017-2035,including 1.4 billion yuan for straw feed briquetting technology,150 million yuan for straw gasification and power generation technology,32.05 billion yuan for straw edible fungus base material technology,and 11.8 billion yuan for straw organic fertilizer production technology.

关 键 词：秸秆资源 动态投入产出模型 政策模拟 技术选择 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]