经济波动中的“信息变速器”效应——基于RBC模型的数值模拟分析  

The“Information Derailleur”Effect in the Economic Fluctuation-An Numerical Simulation Analysis based on the RBC Model

作　　者：包天为 BAO Tian-wei(School of Economics and Management,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,江苏南京211189

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2021年第6期19-28,共10页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目:实物社会转移项目对家庭劳动供给和家庭人口结构的影响分析(项目批准号:2662019QD030)。

摘　　要：经济波动一直是经济学家致力研究而难以统一意见的领域,西方盛行的RBC理论近年来受到多方质疑,并被不断改进,“金融加速器”理论是其中最为著名的拓展。本文认为在经济中除了存在“金融加速器”效应外,更存在一个“信息变速器”效应:信息将会通过影响微观主体的预期而改变他们的经济行为,从而使一个微小的波动被“变速器”放大、改向后可能造成经济较大的波动。通过建立RBC模型论证了经济中的“信息变速器”效应,并认为信息的传达在短期内可能造成经济波动,但是长期的信息释放将会平滑经济波动,这也从另一个方面证明了市场有效性对经济的正面作用。基于此,提出减少信息控制、实现市场有效性是实现经济长期稳定增长的必要路径。Economic fluctuation has always been an area where economists are committed to research and difficult to reach a consensus.The prevailing RBC theory in the West has been questioned by many parties in recent years and has been continuously improved.The“financial accelerator”theory is the most famous expansion.This paper holds that in addition to the“financial accelerator”effect,there is also an“information derailleur”effect in the economy:information will change their economic behavior by affecting the expectations of micro subjects,so that a small fluctuation may be amplified and changed by the“transmission”,which may cause large economic fluctuations.This paper demonstrates the“information derailleur”effect in the economy by establishing the RBC model,and believes that the transmission of information may cause economic fluctuations in the short term,but the long-term release of information will smooth economic fluctuations,which also proves the positive effect of market effectiveness on the economy from another aspect.Based on this,this paper believes that reducing information control and realizing market efficiency is the necessary path to achieve long-term and stable economic growth.

关 键 词：信息变速器 经济波动 经济周期 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]