人口流迁对长江经济带区域经济差距的影响及空间溢出效应  

Influence of Population Mobility and Migration on the Original Economic Gap and Spatial Spillover Effect in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：曾永明 骆泽平 汪瑶瑶 Zeng Yongming;Luo Zeping;Wang Yaoyao(School of Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;Institute of Ecological Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学经济学院,南昌330013 [2]江西财经大学生态经济研究院,南昌330013

出　　处：《热带地理》2021年第6期1258-1269,共12页Tropical Geography

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金(18YJC790006);国家自然科学基金(72064018);江西省高校人文社科基金(SH18205)。

摘　　要：人口流迁对区域经济差距是扩大效应还是缩小效应的争论一直存在,文章利用长江经济带104个城市2001—2017年的空间面板数据,对此议题再作分析。主要结论为:1)对于全局区域经济差距,人口流动、人口迁移与经济差距存在倒“U”型的非线性关系:早期为扩大效应,后期为收敛效应,这与中国梯度发展战略和“先富带动后富,最终实现共同富裕”的阶段化发展理念吻合。2)对于省内区域经济差距,人口流动亦表现为先扩大后收敛的作用,人口迁移则仅表现为扩大效应而无收敛效应。人口流动与人口迁移作用差异来源于后者户籍变更所带来的经济行为和资源配置空间转换。3)考虑空间效应后,判断人口流迁与区域经济差距的内生关系变得相对复杂,但更为全面客观;效应分解显示,人口流动和人口迁移最终是利于区域均衡发展的,其中溢出效应发挥了重要作用。The difference in endowment and the implementation of the gradient development strategy have promoted the large-scale cross-regional migration of China's population and have led to a close relationship between population mobility and migration and the spatial pattern of regional development.There has always been a debate about whether population mobility and migration have an expanding or narrowing effect on the regional economic gap.Therefore,the study revisits the topic and uses panel data on 104 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2001 to 2017,fully considering spatial dependence based on spatial econometrics models.The main findings are as follows:First,for the global regional economic gap,there is an inverted"U"-shaped nonlinear relationship between population mobility,population migration,and the economic gap,with an expansion effect in the early stage and a convergence effect in the later stage.This is in line with China's gradient development strategy,and is consistent with the phased development concept of"the first rich lead the second rich,ultimately achieving common prosperity."Second,regarding the provincial regional economic gap,population mobility manifests itself as an expansion effect initially and a convergence effect afterward,while population migration only manifests as an expansion effect without a convergence effect.The difference in the effects of population mobility and population migration may be due to the spatial transformation of the economic behavior and resource allocation owing to the latter's household registration(hukou)change,as population migration is a direct output of the economic behavior of the emigration area.Services will be reduced,and the agglomeration effect in moving-in areas will further widen the regional economic gap with moving-out areas.Third,having considered the spatial effect,judging the endogenous relationship between population mobility and migration and the regional economic gap has become relatively complex but more comprehensive and objective;th

关 键 词：人口流迁 区域经济差距 溢出效应 均衡发展 长江经济带 

分 类 号：F249.27[经济管理—劳动经济] F127[经济管理—国民经济]