数字经济驱动沿海地区海洋产业高质量发展研究  

Research on the Digital Economy Driving the High-quality Development of Marine Industry in Coastal Areas

作　　者：蹇令香 苏宇凌 曹珊珊 JIAN Ling-xiang;SU Yu-ling;CAO Shan-shan(School of Shipping Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2021年第11期28-40,共13页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中美贸易摩擦新形势下军民融合一体化国家海运战略体系与能力构建研究”(19BGJ023)。

摘　　要：运用“VHSD-EM”模型对中国沿海地区2013—2019年沿海地区海洋产业高质量发展和数字经济发展水平进行综合评价与分析,然后采用机器学习中的随机森林算法和偏效应模型揭示了数字经济对中国海洋产业高质量发展的影响及具体发展路径。研究发现:(1)海洋产业高质量发展水平总体呈现稳步上升趋势,但不同地区及海洋产业子系统内部都存在发展上的不均衡,其中上海、广东发展水平相对较高;(2)沿海地区数字经济发展水平总体呈现迅速增长趋势,其中长三角、珠三角地区相对较高;(3)数字经济能推动海洋产业高质量发展,但是这种影响大小会受到产业集聚规模效应、消费水平、涉海就业机会以及创新能力等经济因素的调节作用,调节作用大小决定了海洋产业高质量发展具体路径。The empirical analysis uses the“VHSD-EM”model to comprehensively evaluate and analyze the development level of high-quality development of Marine industry and Digital economy in coastal areas of China from 2013 to 2019.What’s more,it uses the random forest algorithm of machine learning and partial effect model to reveal the influence of Digital economy on high-quality development of Marine industry in China and the specific development path.The results show that:(1)The high quality development level of Marine industry presents a steady upward trend on the whole,but there are unbalanced development in different regions and Marine industry sub-systems,among which the development level of Shanghai and Guangdong is relatively high;(2)The development level of Digital economy in coastal areas shows a rapid growth trend,among which the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are relatively high;(3)Digital economy can promote the high-quality development of Marine industry,but this influence will be moderated by economic factors such as industrial agglomeration scale effect,consumption level,sea-related employment opportunities and innovation ability,and the specific path of high-quality development of Marine industry will be determined by the moderated effect.

关 键 词：海洋产业 高质量发展 数字经济 随机森林 “VHSDEM”模型 偏效应模型 机器学习 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]