福建省农业与旅游业融合发展实证研究--基于VAR模型  

An Empirical Study on the Convergence Development of Agriculture and Tourism Industry in Fujian Province-Based on the VAR Model

作　　者：任莹 丁晨 刘燊源 林杰[1] 纪金雄[1] REN Ying;DING Chen;LIU Shenyuan;LIN Jie;JI Jinxiong(School of Anxi Tea,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University Quanzhou,Fujian 362400)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学安溪茶学院,福建泉州362400

出　　处：《现代农业研究》2021年第11期1-6,共6页Modern Agriculture Research

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划支持项目(202110389034);福建农林大学横向科技创新基金项目(KHF180007):乡村旅游扶贫效应下贫困农户可持续生计脆弱性评价;福建农林大学安溪茶学院教育发展基金会资助项目(KHCZ17031):产业链视角下的安溪县茶产业与旅游产业融合研究。

摘　　要：选取福建省1997-2019年农业与旅游业发展的有关数据,构建VAR模型,采用协整检验、Granger因果检验、方差分解等方法对福建省农业与旅游业的互动融合发展关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明:福建省旅游业与农业之间存在长期均衡的正向变动关系;福建省国内旅游收入和农业增加值之间存在显著的双向Granger因果关系,但入境旅游收入与国内旅游收入、农业增加值不存在显著的双向Granger因果关系;福建省国内旅游收入的波动和农业增加值的波动彼此相互影响较大,入境旅游收入的波动对国内旅游收入和农业增加值的波动的影响有限。The Cointegration test,Granger Causality Test and variance decomposition were used to study the convergence de⁃velopment of agriculture and tourism industry with data from 1997 to 2019 in Fujian province based on the VAR model.The re⁃sults indicated that there was a long-term equilibrium positive relationship between tourism and agriculture,and a significant two-way Granger causality between domestic tourism income and agricultural value-added,but no significant Granger causali⁃ty between inbound tourism income,domestic tourism income and agricultural value-added.Moreover,the fluctuations in the domestic tourism income and the agricultural value-added had a great impact on each other,but the fluctuations in inbound tourism income had a limited impact on fluctuations in domestic tourism income and agricultural value-added.

关 键 词：产业融合 旅游业 农业 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]