基于TL矩法的洪水频率分布参数估计方法优选  

Optimization of flood frequency distribution parameter estimation method based on TL-moments

作　　者：贾一凡 宋松柏[1,2] JIA Yifan;SONG Songbai(College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Key Laboratory for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area of Ministry of Education,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水资源保护》2021年第6期34-39,共6页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52079110)。

摘　　要：为分析TL矩法在洪水频率分析中的普适性,以陕北地区神木、绥德、杏河、刘家河、黄陵和志丹6个水文站的年最大洪峰流量序列为例,选取广义Pareto分布、广义极值分布和广义Logistic分布,对线性矩法、极大似然法与TL矩法3种参数估计方法进行拟合优度评估。结果表明:除杏河站用广义极值分布外,其他5个水文站的年最大洪峰流量序列用广义Pareto分布拟合效果更佳;与线性矩法和极大似然法相比,TL矩法在各水文站均表现出更佳的拟合效果,是一种洪水频率分布参数估计的较好方法。To study the universality of applying TL-moments method to flood frequency distribution analysis,we took the annual maximum stream flow series at six stations in Shenmu,Suide,Xinghe,Liujiahe,Huangling and Zhidan in northern Shaanxi Province as examples,and selected generalized Pareto distribution,generalized extreme value distribution and generalized Logistic distribution to evaluate the fitting effect of the 3 parameter estimation methods,namely L-moments method,maximum likelihood method and TL-moments method.The results show that,while Xinghe station s annual maximum stream flow series are better described with generalized extreme value distribution,generalized Pareto distribution fits the flow series of the other five stations more accurately.Compared with L-moments method and maximum likelihood method,TL-moments method shows a better fitting effect at each station,which is a better way to estimate the distribution parameters of flood frequency.

关 键 词：TL矩法 线性矩法 极大似然法 洪水频率分析 参数估计 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]