基于SEM和ANN的新冠肺炎疫情期间大学生校内出行行为影响因素研究  

Influencing Factors of University Students′Travel Behavior on Campus During COVID-19 Pandemic Based on SEM and ANN

作　　者：刘猛 赵胜川[1] LIU Meng;ZHAO Sheng-chuan(School of Transportation and Logistics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学交通运输学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2021年第5期43-53,共11页Transport Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51478085)。

摘　　要：为明确新冠肺炎疫情期间大学生校内出行行为的影响因素,从而更好地满足大学生的校内出行需求,对大学生的感知建成环境、态度、出行行为的相互作用关系及其受到的新冠肺炎疫情的影响进行研究。针对大连理工大学在校大学生进行问卷调查,收集个人基本属性、感知建成环境、态度、工作日和休息日的出行次数等相关数据,建立结构方程模型(Structural Equation Model,SEM)以探究各变量间的作用路径,并应用人工神经网络(Artificial Neural Network,ANN)对各影响因素对于出行行为的重要性进行排序。结果显示:①感知建成环境,尤其是便利性,对休息日出行行为(路径系数为0.241,P<0.05)和工作日出行行为(路径系数为0.193,P<0.05)均有显著正向影响;②态度对休息日出行行为(路径系数为0.200,P<0.05)有显著正向影响,对工作日出行行为无显著影响;③态度对感知建成环境的影响和感知建成环境对态度的影响均显著,但前者相对更强;④新冠肺炎疫情对感知建成环境和态度有显著负向的直接或间接影响。基于以上研究结果,建议各高校通过完善校园基础设施、优化布局,以改善大学生对校园建成环境的感知,培养积极的出行态度,从而促进大学生身心健康发展。In order to figure out the influencing factors of university students′travel behavior on campus to better meet their needs of travel on campus during the pandemic of COVID-19,the paper studied the interrelation among perceived built environment,attitudes and travel behavior,as well as the influence of the pandemic on them.A questionnaire survey on students of Dalian University of Technology was conducted.The related data about perceived built environment,attitudes,trip times on weekends and weekdays were collected.Furthermore,the Structural Equation Models were established to explore the acting path among variables,and the ANN(Artificial Neural Network)was applied to rank the importance of each influencing factor to the travel behavior.The results indicated that:①perceived environment,especially convenience,significantly promoted travel behavior both on weekends(its path coefficient was 0.241,P<0.05)and on weekdays(its path coefficient was 0.193,P<0.05);②the attitudes had positive effect on travel behavior on weekends(its path coefficient was 0.200,P<0.05),but not on travel behavior on weekdays;③the effect of attitudes on perceived environment and the effect of perceived environment on attitudes were both significant,but the former was much stronger;④the pandemic had significant negative effects on perceived environment and attitudes,directly or indirectly.According the research results,it is suggested that campus facilities and layout should be optimized to help the students to improve their perception of built environment and cultivate positive attitudes to travel,which benefit the students′mental and physical health.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 出行态度 出行行为 感知建成环境 结构方程模型 人工神经网络 

分 类 号：U491.11[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]