基于改进SEIR算法的疫情传播趋势检测方法  

Epidemic Propagation Trend Detection Based on Improved SEIR Algorithm

作　　者：燕杨[1] 郭皓钰 魏宇航[2] 尤紫如 肖志强 黄文博[1] YAN Yang;GUO Haoyu;WEI Yuhang;YOU Ziru;XIAO Zhiqiang;HUANG Wenbo(School of Computer Science and Technology,Changchun Normal University,Changchun 130032,China;The First Bethune Clinical Medical College of Jilin University,Changchun 130021,China;College of Earth Sciences,Jilin University,Changchun 130021,China)

机构地区：[1]长春师范大学计算机科学与技术学院,长春130032 [2]吉林大学白求恩第一临床医学院,长春130021 [3]吉林大学地球科学学院,长春130021

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（理学版）》2021年第6期1511-1516,共6页Journal of Jilin University:Science Edition

基　　金：吉林省教育厅科学研究规划项目(批准号:JJKH20200830K);吉林省教育厅科学技术研究项目(批准号:JJKH20210887KJ);吉林省自然科学基金(联合基金项目)(批准号:YDZJ202101ZYTS147).

摘　　要：通过对传统SEIR(susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed)算法进行优化重建,提出一种改进的SEIR算法.该算法通过为感染率β添加衰减函数,对数据拟合得到随时间增长而改变的β.仿真实验结果表明,该算法在测试集上的平均MSE(mean square error)只有0.11,相比于目前已有的其他算法,误差值显著降低.By optimizing and reconstructing the traditional SEIR(susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed)algorithm,we proposed an improved SEIR algorithm.The algorithm added attenuation function to the infection rateβ,and the data were fitted to get the infection rateβthat changed with time.Simulation results show that the average MSE(mean square error)of the algorithm on the test set is only 0.11,which significantly reduced the error value compared with other existing algorithm.

关 键 词：SEIR算法 衰减函数 ARIM算法 传播趋势检测 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]