宁夏典型牧区盐池县降水及可利用降水多时间尺度变化特征分析  

Analysis on multi-time scale variation characteristics of precipitation and available precipitation during 1954~2019 in Yanchi area of Ningxia

作　　者：汤英 丁成翔[2] 徐利岗 周乾 TANG Ying;DING Chengxiang;XU Ligang;ZHOU Qian(Ningxia Hydraulic Research Institute,Yinchuan 750021,China;Academy of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Science,Qinghai University,Qinghai Academy of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Science,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏水利科学研究院,宁夏银川750021 [2]青海大学畜牧兽医科学院,青海省畜牧兽医科学院,青海西宁810016

出　　处：《甘肃农业大学学报》2021年第5期101-109,共9页Journal of Gansu Agricultural University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400307);宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划项目(2019BBF02029);宁夏人才项目(KJT2016005).

摘　　要：【目的】掌握宁夏半干旱风沙草原区降水及可利用降水年内和四季分配、丰枯振荡周期及未来变化趋势,为当地天然草场修复、人工草地及作物科学灌溉提供依据.【方法】以盐池县为研究区,利用区域内国家标准气象站1954~2019年月降水及气温资料,运用Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall法及气候趋势系数等方法分析盐池县降水量(P)、陆面蒸发量(E)及可利用降水量(P_(e))的时空变化及其未来趋势.【结果】盐池县多年平均降水297.4mm,P_(e)为55.4mm,6~9月降水占全年的80.9%,6月蒸发系数最高为0.94;夏季的P_(e)最大为35.2 mm;占全年的65.3%,冬季最小为0.5 mm;P_(e)存在3 a、5 a和10 a主周期.【结论】预测未来年降水量将以5.3 mm/10a增幅显著增加,年可利用降水量则以1.5 mm/10 a的降幅减少,夏季、秋季和冬季P_(e)呈增加趋势,变幅0.1~1.3 mm/10 a.【Objective】To find out the distribution of precipitation and available precipitation during the year and seasons,the cycle of abundant and shortage and the changing trend in the future in the semi-arid sandy grassland area of Ningxia,at the same time,to provide the basis for the restoration of natural grassland,artificial grassland and scientific irrigation of crops.【Method】Focus on Yanchi County,using the Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall method and climate trend coefficient method,the characteristics of precipitation on the multiple-time scale change and variability tendency and gradient of precipitation(P),continental evapotranspiration(E)and available precipitation(P_(e)) are analyzed by the monthly precipitation and temperature data of the national standard weather station in the region from 1954 to 2019.【Result】The average annual precipitation in Yanchi area is 297.4 mm,and the P_(e) is 55.4 mm.The maximum P_(e)is 21.7 mm in August,80.9%of the whole year is from June to September,and the highest evaporation coefficient is 0.94 in May and June.The maximum P_(e) is 35.2 mm in summer,accounting for 65.3%of the whole year,and the minimum P_(e) is 0.5 mm in winter.P_(e) has a main cycle of 3 a,5 a and 10 a,which has been dominated by 10 a oscillation cycle since the 1960 s.【Conclusion】Annual precipitation will increase significantly by 5.3 mm/10 a,and available precipitation will be reduced by 1.5 mm/10 a,and P_(e) will increase in summer,autumn and winter.The trend is not significant,the amplitude is 0.1~1.3 mm/10 a.

关 键 词：宁夏典型牧区 降水量 可利用降水量 多时间尺度分析 趋势分析 MANN-KENDALL法 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]