“2+26”城市碳排放时空演变特征及其驱动因素研究  

Study on the Spatial-temporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions in“2+26”Cities and Its Driving Factors

作　　者：张雪华 董会忠[1] ZHANG Xue-hua;DONG Hui-zhong(School of Management,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255000,China)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学管理学院,山东淄博255000

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2021年第12期1448-1456,共9页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“差异化视角下‘2+26’城市煤炭消费减量替代路径与协同机制研究”(编号:19BJY085)。

摘　　要：基于"2+26"城市2008—2018年终端能源消费计算的碳排放数据,构建空间自相关和LMDI模型,分析京津冀及其周边地区能源碳排放的区域差异及其演变规律,并从周期控制的视角系统探究了"2+26"城市能源碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)研究期内,京津冀及其周边地区能源碳排放存在较为显著的时空异质性,变动趋势可分为先增加后减少、持续增加、持续减少3种模式。(2)人口规模、经济发展水平、能源效率总体呈现促进作用,而产业结构、能源结构、煤炭清洁利用技术表现为抑制碳排放作用。(3)从区域层面看,能源碳排放驱动因素在不同城市所起到的作用和效力呈差异性和规律性。Based on the carbon emission data calculated from the final energy consumption of the“2+26”cities from 2008 to 2018,this paper constructed a spatial autocorrelation and LMDI model to analyze the regional differences and evolution of energy carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas,and systematically explored the driving factors of“2+26”urban energy carbon emission from the perspective of cycle control.The results showed that:(1)During the study period,there was significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity in energy carbon emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and its surrounding areas.The change trend could be divided into three modes:First increase and then decrease,continuous increase and continuous decrease.(2)Population size,economic development level and energy efficiency generally played a promoting role,while industrial structure,energy structure and coal clean utilization technology played a role in inhibiting carbon emissions.(3)From the regional level,the role and effectiveness of energy carbon emission drivers in different cities were different and regular.

关 键 词：碳排放 区位差异 影响因素 LMDI模型 “2+26”城市 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]