基于故障树的沉船整体打捞系统失效风险分析  

Failure Risk Analysis of Wreck Salvage System Based on Fault Tree

作　　者：黄铮 肖龙飞[1,2] 刘雨[3] 徐胜文[1,2] 寇雨丰[1] HUANG Zheng;XIAO Longfei;LIU Yu;XU Shengwen;KOU Yufeng(State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;SJTU-SanyaYazhou Bay Institute of Deep-Sea Science and Technology,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Sanya 572024,Hainan,China;Shanghai Salvage Bureau of the Ministry of Transport,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室,上海200240 [2]上海交通大学三亚崖州湾深海科技研究院,海南三亚572024 [3]交通运输部上海打捞局,上海200090

出　　处：《船舶工程》2021年第8期175-183,共9页Ship Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFC0309704)。

摘　　要：采用双船抬吊打捞系统对大吨位沉船进行整体打捞是一项高难度高危险作业,对打捞系统及打捞过程进行风险评估至关重要。基于故障树分析法对双船抬吊打捞系统进行分析,确定打捞系统的逻辑树与二级子系统,分析二级子系统的失效模式,并绘制打捞系统的故障树。根据打捞工程危险源识别报告、失效数据库估算基本事件的发生概率,通过故障树定量分析得到打捞系统发生故障的概率是0.00216,属于中等偏高风险,平均无障碍工作时间约为463.97 h。最后通过计算分析确定了基本事件的风险值,并为风险值较高的基本事件提出风险控制方法,为打捞作业安全保障提供支持。It is a difficult and dangerous operation to carry out the overall salvage of the large tonnage wreck by using the double-ship lifting system.It is very important to evaluate the risk of the salvage system and the salvage process.Based on the analysis of fault tree analysis method,the logic tree and the secondary subsystem of the salvage system are determined,the failure mode of the secondary subsystem is analyzed,and the fault tree of the salvage system is drawn.According to the hazard identification report of salvage engineering and the failure database,the probability of occurrence of basic events is estimated.Through the quantitative analysis of fault tree,the probability of failure of salvage system is 0.00216,which belongs to the medium or high risk,and the average accessible working time is about 463.97 h.Finally,the risk value of the basic events is analyzed and determined,and the risk control method for the basic events with high risk value is proposed to provide support for the safety guarantee of the salvage operation.

关 键 词：沉船整体打捞 双船抬吊法 故障树分析法 失效模式分析 定量分析 

分 类 号：U676.6[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]