基于重大危险源区域定量风险评估方法的液氨泄漏社会风险与个人风险评估研究  

Study on Social Risk and Personal Risk Assessment of Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Regional Quantitative Risk Assessment Method of Major Hazard Sources

作　　者：郭虎城 刁秀蒙 周靖轩 宋相杰 宋文华[2] Guo Hucheng;Diao Xiumeng;Zhou Jingxuan;Song Xiangjie;Song Wenhua(Tianjin Fire Rescue Bureau,Tianjin 300090,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Tiangong University,Tianjin 300387,Chbm;Tianjin Huateng Technology Safety Technology Consulting Co.,Ltd,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市消防救援总队,天津300090 [2]天津工业大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300387 [3]天津市华腾理工安全科技咨询有限公司,天津300384

出　　处：《南开大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第5期99-105,共7页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Nankaiensis

基　　金：天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(10ZCGYSF01600)。

摘　　要：采用重大危险源区域定量风险评估方法(CASST-QRA),对选择实际案例液氨灌区,在给定泄漏模式、灾害模式和扩散条件下,进行事故后果、社会与个人风险评估依据.结果表明,8种不同类型的泄漏模式,在灾害模式为扩散的前提下,风速与大气稳定度对事故后果的影响较大;在风速"静风、1.2和2.3 m/s"、大气稳定度"E类、E类、D类"的条件下,死亡事故后果的半径已经波及到厂内较大部分区域;在40.1 m/s、A类的条件下,各种类型事故后果影响的死亡半径已经不呈现,仅仅表现为重伤、轻伤,且半径相同、半径较小(2 m);在灾害模式为物理爆炸时,液氨储罐的事故后果为死亡半径12 m、多米诺半径17 m,同样波及到与液氨灌区相邻的建构筑物;液氨储罐单元的个人风险满足国家标准给出的可容许个人风险标准的要求,液氨储罐单元的发生事故时,其社会风险值部分落在了尽可能降低的区域内、部分落在了可接受区域内,采取相应的安全措施会使社会风险值全部在可接受范围内.Using the regional quantitative risk assessment method of major hazard sources(casst-qra),the accident consequences,social and personal risks of the selected actual case liquid ammonia irrigation area are assessed under the given leakage mode,disaster mode and diffusion conditions.The results show that under the premise that the disaster mode is diffusion,the wind speed and atmospheric stability have a great impact on the accident consequences.Under the conditions of"calm wind speed,1.2 m/s and 2.3 m/s"and"class E,class E and class D"atmospheric stability,the radius of the consequences of fatal accidents has spread to most areas of the plant.Under the condition of 40.1 m/s and class A,the death radius affected by the consequences of various types of accidents does not appear,only serious injury and minor injury,with the same radius and small radius(2 m).Under the condition that the disaster mode is physical explosion,the accident consequences of liquid ammonia storage tank are death radius of 12 m and domino radius of 17 m,which also affect the buildings adjacent to the liquid ammonia irrigation area.The personal risk of liquid ammonia storage tank unit meets the requirements of allowable personal risk standards given in national standards.In case of accident of liquid ammonia storage tank unit,part of its social risk value falls within the area as low as possible and part falls within the acceptable area.After taking corresponding safety measures,the social risk value of the whole tribe is within an acceptable range.

关 键 词：重大危险源 区域定量风险评估 液氨泄漏 事故后果 社会与个人风险 

分 类 号：X924.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]