基于MCGC 的大型城市地下综合体风险评价研究  

Risk Research of Large Urban Underground Complex Based on MCGC

作　　者：钟碧蓉 王泽宇 朱健[1] ZHONG Bi-rong;WANG Ze-yu;ZHU Jian(School of Management,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广州大学管理学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2021年第5期64-69,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72001051).

摘　　要：大型城市地下综合体的建设开发风险因素多、管控难度大,从全生命周期角度出发构建评价系统和评价模型,对大型地下综合体风险控制有重要意义。在辨识出开发、设计、施工、运营4个阶段关键风险因素的基础上,建立包括管理、经济、技术和法规等评价内容的风险评价指标体系;利用云重心评价法构建云评价模型,确定指标权重;依据评价标准对广州市南站地下综合体项目进行总体风险评价,确定项目的风险等级。结果表明:广州南站地下综合体项目整体风险偏向严重性,专家评价与实际状况一致,验证了评价体系和模型的有效性,需采取措施降低风险等级。The development and construction of large urban underground complex have many risk factors and difficult control.It isgreatly significant to construct evaluation system and evaluation model from the perspective of whole life cycle for risk control oflarge underground complex.The key risk factors in the stages of development,design,construction and operation are identified anda risk evaluation index system including management,economy,technology and regulations is established.Next,the Method ofCloud and its Gravity Center(MCGC)is used to construct the cloud evaluation model and to determine the index weight.Theproposed method is used to evaluate the overall risk of Guangzhou south railway station underground complex project.The resultshows that the overall risk level of Guangzhou south railway station underground complex project is serious,and the evaluationresult of experts is consistent with the actual situation,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed system and model.It isnecessary to take measures for this complex project to reduce the risk level.

关 键 词：大型城市地下综合体 风险因素 风险评价 云重心评价法 

分 类 号：TU924[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]