“一带一路”基础设施PPP项目投资风险研究——以东南亚三国为例  

Research on Investment Risks and Countermeasures of “Belt and Road” Infrastructure PPP Project:A Case Study of Southeast Asian Countries

作　　者：王宗韩 白思俊[1] 郭云涛[1] WANG Zong-han;BAI Si-jun;GUO Yun-tao(School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710129,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,陕西西安710129

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2021年第5期88-93,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：陕西省社会科学基金项目(2O15ROO5).

摘　　要：基于国内投资方视角,针对“一带一路”基础设施PPP项目投资风险问题,以投资高风险的东南亚三国(柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸)为例,通过调查问卷获得投资风险相关数据,确定高等级风险:政府腐败/不作为、政府信用不足。其次利用贝叶斯网络建立“一带一路”基础设施PPP项目投资风险网络模型,使用改进的Leaky noisy-or gate模型完善网络参数。采用团树传播算法获得东南亚三国投资关键性风险:市场收益不足、外汇风险、政府腐败/不作为,运用GeNIe 2.0软件获得敏感性风险:违背PPP国际规则。并给出“一带一路”基础设施PPP项目投资风险应对措施和投资建议。Taking the three Southeast Asian countries(Cambodia,Myanmar,and Laos)with high investment risks as examplesto research the investment risk of“Belt and Road”infrastructure PPP projects based on the perspective of domestic investors.First,to determine the high-level risks,the investment risk-related data are obtained by using the questionnaire.The high-level risks(Government corruption/inaction,Insufficient government credit)are also determined.Then,the Bayesian network of theinvestment risk of“Belt and Road”infrastructure PPP projects is established.The network parameters are obtained by using animproved Leaky noisy-or gate model.The important risks,such as Insufficient market return risk,Foreign exchange risk,andGovernment corruption/inaction are obtained by using the Clique-tree propagation algorithm and the GeNIe 2.0 software is appliedto obtain sensitive risk:Violating PPP international rules.Finally,suggestions and measures are provided to deal with the criticalinvestment risk of“Belt and Road”infrastructure PPP projects.

关 键 词：“一带一路” PPP 投资风险 贝叶斯网络 Leaky noisy-or gate 团树传播算法 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]