基于最大熵方法分析轮旋压设备旋轮座可靠性  

Reliability analysis of the roller base of a counter-roller spinning machine based on the maximum entropy method

作　　者：郑宏伟 孟广伟 李锋 黄涛 郭亚明 宣默涵 ZHENG Hongwei;MENG Guangwei;LI Feng;HUANG Tao;GUO Yaming;XUAN Mohan(College of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering,Jilin University,Changchun 130025,China;Changchun Equipment Technology Research Institute,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学机械与航空航天工程学院,长春130025 [2]长春设备工艺研究所,长春130012

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第11期1289-1294,共6页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国防基础科研计划项目(JCKY2016208B003)。

摘　　要：基于最大熵方法,该文提出一种对轮旋压设备旋轮座结构可靠性分析模型。采用最大熵方法得到功能函数的概率密度函数表达式,利用Taylor展开方法与调用有限元程序相结合得到功能函数前四阶中心矩,然后将功能函数标准化变换得到四阶原点矩,基于四阶原点矩,采用MATLAB函数求解最大熵方法约束条件表达式,得到最大熵概率密度函数所需的参数,然后拟合概率密度曲线,最后采用积分求解功能函数的失效概率,计算结果与MCS(Monte Carlo simulation)方法对比,相对误差为1.61%,验证了该方法的正确性和可行性。此外,还改进设计了旋轮座基体结构,结果表明:改进后的失效概率比改进前降低了11.42%,提高了结构的可靠性。The maximum entropy method was used to develop a reliability analysis model for the roller base of a counter-roller spinning machine.The maximum entropy method was used to define the probability density expression for the performance function with the fourth-order central moments then computed using a Taylor series expansion and a finite element analysis.The fourth-order origin moments were then calculated by a standardized transformation.MATLAB was then used to solve the constrained expression for the moments to obtain the maximum entropy probability density function parameters.The parameters were fit to get the probability density curve with the failure probability of the structural function then found by integration.The error relative to a Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)was 1.61%,which shows that this method is accurate.The roller base was then optimized which reduced the failure probability after optimization by 11.42%.

关 键 词：对轮旋压设备 可靠性分析 最大熵方法 Taylor展开法 概率密度函数 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]