人口少子化、房价与消费——基于家庭代际关系的视角  

The Population Decreases,Housing Price and Consumption——From the Perspective of Family Intergenerational Relationship

作　　者：韩保庆 张敬霞 Han Baoqing;Zhang Jingxia(School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Social Development and Public Policy,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100082,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [2]北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院,北京100082

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2021年第12期131-138,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：中国人民大学2020年度“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”支持。

摘　　要：本文从家庭代际关系的角度,建立了一个三期世代交叠模型,研究在考虑到父母为子女未来买房储蓄时人口少子化和房价对消费的影响。模型认为当父母不需要为子女未来买房储蓄时,人口少子化会抑制消费率;随着父母为子女未来买房储蓄的增加,人口少子化对消费率的抑制作用在减弱。本文使用中国2005~2019年31个省、市、自治区的面板数据,以少儿抚养比来衡量人口少子化,以房价来衡量父母为子女未来买房的储蓄额进行实证研究。研究发现:随着房价的上升,少儿抚养比的增加对消费率的促进作用在显著减弱,而且当房价的对数为0时,少儿抚养比对消费率的影响显著为正,且该结论是稳健的。实证结果支持了本文的结论。From the perspective of family intergenerational relationship,this paper establishes a three-stage generation over⁃lapping model to study the impact of population reduction and housing price on consumption when considering parents'saving for their children's future house purchase.The model holds that when parents do not need to save for their children to buy a house in the future,the small population will restrain the consumption rate.As parents save more for their children's future homes,the effect of a smaller population on consumption rates is diminishing.This paper uses the panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and auto⁃nomous regions in China from 2005 to 2019 to make an empirical study by using child dependency ratio to measure the small popula⁃tion and housing price to measure the savings of parents to buy a house for their children.The research finds that:with the rise of housing price,the promotion effect of the increase of child dependency ratio on the consumption rate weakens significantly,and when the logarithm of housing price is 0,the influence of child dependency ratio on the consumption rate is significantly positive,and this conclusion is robust.The empirical results support the conclusion of this paper.

关 键 词：人口少子化 家庭代际关系 消费 房价 储蓄效应 三期世代交叠模型 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] F224