储蓄、老龄化与经济增长  

Savings,Aging and Economic Growth

作　　者：逯进[1] 李婷婷 张晓峒 LU Jin;LI Tingting;ZHANG Xiaotong(Economics School,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China;Economics School,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266071 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第6期118-128,共11页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18BJL117)。

摘　　要：在经济结构转型的关键时期以及人口老龄化快速加深的现实约束下,强化储蓄与投资、储蓄与社会保障协同共进的基础性作用格外重要。本文基于1997—2019年中国31个省份的面板数据,分析了储蓄和老龄化对经济增长的联动作用效果与机制。结果表明:(1)经济增长会受到老龄化的负面影响,而储蓄对经济增长具有显著的正向影响,且具有明显的区域差异。(2)储蓄和老龄化会通过协同作用进一步影响经济增长,储蓄增加会减弱老龄化对经济增长的抑制作用,而老龄化程度的加深会增强储蓄对经济增长的促进作用。(3)在储蓄跨过门槛值后,老龄化对经济增长的抑制作用减弱;而在老龄化跨过门槛值后,储蓄对经济增长的正向作用却进一步增强。(4)老龄化和储蓄对经济增长的影响会通过产业结构和人力资本两类中介进行传导。据此得出中国的储蓄率是经济增长的关键,老龄化和储蓄之间是相互影响、相互作用的结论,并对老龄化在促进第三产业发展的同时可能造成的过早去工业化风险和结构性减速问题提出了思考。In the critical period of economic structural transformation and the reality of a rapidly aging population,it is particularly important to strengthen the basic role of savings and investment,savings and social security in coordination.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2019,this paper analyzes the effects and mechanisms of the linkage between savings and aging on economic growth.The results show that:(1)Aging has a negative impact on economic growth,while savings has a significant positive impact on economic growth,with obvious regional differences.(2)Savings and aging will further influence economic growth through synergistic effect.The increase of savings will weaken the inhibition effect of aging on economic growth,while the deepening of aging degree will enhance the promotion effect of savings on economic growth.(3)After saving crosses the threshold,the inhibition effect of aging on economic growth is weakened,while the positive effect of saving on economic growth is further enhanced.(4)The impact of aging and saving on economic growth will be transmitted through industrial structure and human capital.It is concluded that China’s savings rate is the key to economic growth,and that aging and savings are mutually affecting and interacting.It is also suggested that aging may cause premature deindustrialization risk and structural deceleration while promoting the development of tertiary industry.

关 键 词：老龄化 储蓄 经济增长 人口结构 储蓄率 产业结构 人力资本 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] D669.6[政治法律—政治学]