湖南一次暴雨灾害的中尺度特征及可预报性研究  

Study on the mesoscale characteristics and predcasts of a rainstorm disaster in Hunan province

作　　者：廖春花 刘红武 徐靖宇 LIAO Chun-hua;LIU Hong-wu;XU Jing-yu(Hunan Meteorological Service Center,Changsha 410118,China;Hunan Meteorological Observatory,Changsha 410118,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象服务中心,长沙410118 [2]湖南省气象台,长沙410118

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2021年第21期43-48,共6页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：湖南省气象局第三期业务能力建设项目(NLJS09);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2017-050)。

摘　　要：利用常规和加密观测资料、雷达资料和NCEP再分析资料,对湖南省2018年夏季一次农业致灾暴雨过程的中尺度特征和不同数值预报模式的预报能力进行分析。结果表明,暴雨过程由锋面降雨和暖区降雨两种形态组成,两种形态均无明显的急流出现。超过40 dBZ强降水回波带位置稳定,形成明显的列车效应,超过50 dBZ的多个强回波单体不断生消发展,低质心降水回波、中低层下暖上冷的大气不稳定层、较高的VIL是强降水发生的有利条件。中尺度滤波实验能较好分离出中尺度天气系统,不同方案效果不同。对于锋面降雨,大尺度模式和中尺度模式均对降水落区的预报效果较好,而中尺度模式对降水强度的模拟更为准确。对于暖区局地强降雨,大尺度模式预报偏差大,且不稳定,中尺度模式能捕捉一些信息,可在天气预报中参考。Using conventional and encrypted observation data,radar data and NCEP re-analysis data,the mid-scale characteristics and the forecasting ability of different numerical prediction models in the course of an agricultural rainstorm were analyzed in the summer of 2018 in Hunan province.The results showed that the rainstorm process was composed frontal rainfall and warm zone rainfall,and there was no obvious rapids in both forms.More than 40 dBZ of strong precipitation echo band position was stable,forming obvious train effect,more than 50 dBZ of multiple strong echo monomers were constantly evolving,low-mass precipitation echo,middle-lowlayer warm upper-cold atmospheric instability layer,higher VIL were favorable conditions for heavy precipitation.The mesoscale filtering experiment could better separate the mesoscale weather system,and different schemes had different effects.For frontal rainfall,both the large-scale model and the mesoscale model had better prediction effect on precipitation falling area,while the mesoscale model was more accurate to simulate precipitation intensity.For local heavy rainfall in warm zone,the large scale model forecast deviation was large and unstable,and the mesoscale model could capture some information,which could be referred to weather forecast.

关 键 词：暴雨灾害 中尺度分析 雷达回波 Barnes滤波 模式可预报性 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]