基于水文分区的海河流域洪水演变影响因素分析  

An Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Flood Evolution in Haihe River Basin Based on Hydrologic Regionalizations

作　　者：陈旭 韩瑞光[1] CHEN Xu;HAN Rui-guang(Hydrology Bureau of Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission,MWR,Tianjin 300170,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部海河水利委员会水文局,天津300170

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2021年第11期69-77,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“地表要素的卫星和UAV多源遥感及其水文业务预报应用”(2018YFE0106500)。

摘　　要：为定量研究气候变化和人类活动对流域尺度洪水演变的影响,以海河流域为研究对象,基于下垫面和气候要素,采用主成分分析法和聚类分析法对海河流域水文分区进行划分,在此基础上,采用Spearman秩相关系数、交叉小波变换和小波相干谱从线性和非线性角度开展流域尺度洪水要素与降水因子相关性分析,采用双累积曲线法定量揭示气候变化与人类活动对海河流域洪水演变的影响。结果表明:基于下垫面和气候要素海河流域共被划分为5个水文分区。第二-第五水文分区洪峰、最大3日洪量与最大3日降雨量均呈现显著相关性。在高能量区第二水文分区,洪峰、最大3日洪量与最大3日降雨在1959-1968年间存在0-8月的显著正相关区域;第三水文分区洪峰、最大3日洪量与最大3日降雨在1960-1966年间存在0-5月的显著相关关系;第四水文分区最大3日洪量与最大3日降雨在1977-1983年和1993-1997年间分别存在以13-15月和3-4月为共振周期的相关关系;第五水文分区洪峰、最大3日洪量与最大3日降雨在1955-1967年间存在以0-6月为共振周期的显著相关关系。低能量区4个水文分区洪峰、最大3日洪量与最大3日降雨均存在较多的显著共振正周期,相关性较强。人类活动是海河流域各水文分区不同时段洪水锐减的主要原因,且第二水文分区洪峰1963-1978年间洪水受人类活动影响最大,综合反映了大规模水利工程建设运行及水土保持措施实施对海河流域洪水减少作用的显著性。In order to quantitatively study the impacts of climate change and human activities on basin-scale flood evolution,the Haihe River Basin is taken as the research object.Based on the underlying surface and climate factors,the hydrologic regionalizations of the Haihe River Basin are divided by principal component analysis and cluster analysis methods.On this basis,Spearman rank correlation coefficient,crosswavelet transform and wavelet coherence spectrum are used to carry out the correlation analysis between basin-scale flood factors and precipitation factors from the linear and nonlinear perspectives.The double cumulative curve method is used to quantitatively reveal the impacts of climate change and human activities on the flood evolution in the Haihe River Basin.The results show that the Haihe River Basin is divided into five hydrologic regionalizations based on underlying surface and climatic factors.Correlations between the flood peak,the maximum 3-day flood volume and the maximum 3-day rainfall in the second-fifth hydrologic regionalizations are significant.In the high energy region,the second hydrologic regionalization had a 0-8 months’significant positive correlation between the peak flood,the maximum 3-day flood volume and the maximum 3-day rainfall from 1959 to 1968.There was a 0-5 months’significant correlation between the flood peak,the maximum 3-day flood volume and the maximum 3-day rainfall in the third hydrologic regionalization from 1960 to 1966.The correlation between the maximum 3-day flood volume and the maximum 3-day rainfall in the fourth hydrological regionalization existed in the period of13-15 and 3-4 months respectively in 1977-1983 and 1993-1997.There was a significant correlation between the flood peak,the maximum3-day flood volume and the maximum 3-day rainfall in the fifth hydrologic regionalization in 1955-1967,with 0-6 months as the resonance period.In the low energy region,there were many significant resonance positive cycles between the flood peak,the maximum 3-day flood volume

关 键 词：海河流域 气候变化 水文分区 洪水 影响因素 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]