修正参数的SEIR模型探究防疫策略  

Research on Epidemic Prevention Strategy Based on Modified SEIR Model

作　　者：张继元 张家玮 许迅雷[1] ZHANG Ji-yuan;ZHANG Jia-wei;XU Xun-lei(School of Information Engineering,Xian University,Xian 710065,China)

机构地区：[1]西安文理学院信息工程学院,西安710065

出　　处：《西安文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2021年第4期19-22,共4页Journal of Xi’an University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：针对某地区疫情数据,探究接触率为变量对疫情预测的影响.根据疫情传播学规律,采用SEIR模型,对两地区真实数据和医疗资源对比分析.随着管控程度的增加,接触率随时间变化,对该模型进行优化,利用指数增长方程改写接触率参数的变化方程,采用均方根误差最小的约束原则与真实数据进行对比,优化得到该粒度下的最优解参数.绘制预测分析图,证实将接触率作为变量会更加贴近真实数据.According to the epidemic data of a certain region,the impact of contact rate as a variable on the epidemic prediction is explored in this paper.According to the law of epidemic spread,SEIR model was used to compare the real data and medical resources in the two regions.With the increase of control degree,the contact rate changes with time,and the model is optimized.The exponential growth equation is used to rewrite the change equation of contact rate parameters,and the constraint principle of minimum root mean square error is used to compare with the real data.The optimal solution parameters under this granularity are optimized,and the prediction analysis chart is drawn,which proves that the contact rate as a variable will be closer to the real data.

关 键 词：SEIR模型 指数增长方程 均方根误差 

分 类 号：O211[理学—概率论与数理统计] R563.1[理学—数学]