铁路投资、换算周转量对经济发展的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析  

Research on the Impact of Railway Investment and Conversion Turnover on Economic Development:An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

作　　者：薛锋 杨宗琴 李青青 黄宇 XUE Feng;YANG Zongqin;LI Qingqing;HUANG Yu

机构地区：[1]交通运输与物流学院 [2]成都市交通发展研究院,轨道交通研究所 [3]不详

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第6期96-105,共10页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目“基于产业图谱的区域轨道交通产业关联效应研究”(20YJCZH113);成都市软科学研究计划项目“成都市轨道交通产业链合理配置及协同运作机制研究”(2020-RK00-00108-ZF);西南交通大学“双一流”建设项目(交通软科学类)“铁路对交通强国战略的支撑模式研究”(JDSYLYB2018030)。

摘　　要：随着我国“交通强国”战略的实施,铁路建设对国家经济发展的支撑作用更加明显,二者之间的关联性更加紧密。以2000~2017年我国铁路固定资产投资、换算周转量、国内生产总值三方面数据为基础,应用向量自回归(VAR)模型等方法定量分析铁路发展对国家经济发展的支撑作用,结果表明:(1)铁路固定资产投资、换算周转量对国内生产总值方差分解平均贡献率分别为5.540%、2.824%;(2)铁路固定资产投资、换算周转量与国内生产总值互为格兰杰原因,彼此存在长期的、稳定的正向推动作用。With the implementation of the“Traffic Power”strategy,the railway s support for the country s economic development is more obvious,and the correlation between the two is closer.The time series data of railway fixed assets investment,railway conversion turnover and gross domestic product(GDP)from 2000 to 2017 were selected,and variate vector autoregressive(VAR)model,Granger causality test and pulse function analysis were applied to detect the dynamic relationship between the three indicators quantitatively studies the supporting role of railways for national economic development.The results show that the average contribution rates of railway fixed asset investment and total railway converted turnover to GDP variance decomposition are 5.540%and 2.824%respectively.Railway fixed assets investment,railway total conversion turnover and GDP are Granger reasons for each other,and they have a long-term and stable positive promotion effect on each other.The average contribution rates of railway fixed asset investment and railway converted turnover to GDP variance decomposition are 5.540%and 2.824%respectively.

关 键 词：铁路运输 固定资产投资 换算周转量 国内生产总值 经济增长 区域经济 铁路营业里程 基础设施建设 

分 类 号：F532[经济管理—产业经济] F124