地震人员伤亡评估方法及损失评估系统综述  

REVIEW OF ESTIMATION METHODS AND SYSTEMS USED TO PREDICT EARTHQUAKE CASUALTIES

作　　者：闫佳琦 陈相兆[1] 孙柏涛[1] YAN Jia-qi;CHEN Xiang-zhao;SUN Bai-tao(Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration of China Earthquake Administration,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所,中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《工程力学》2021年第12期1-16,共16页Engineering Mechanics

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1504602,2019YFC1509303);国家自然科学基金项目(51708524,51608495);中国地震局创新团队发展计划资助项目(中国大陆地区地震灾害模拟与评估)。

摘　　要：地震人员伤亡评估对于震前抗震防灾规划和震后应急救援具有重要意义。地震工程、地球物理、社会科学和公共卫生等领域的学者就此问题展开了多角度研究。目前,地震人员伤亡评估模型按适用范围可分为全球/区域模型和本地模型2类。按影响因素可分为基于地震参数和基于建筑破坏概率的评估方法,也有学者在此基础上考虑了次生灾害、人口特性的影响。该文在阐述地震人员伤亡评估工作重要性的基础上,总结全球典型人员伤亡传统评估方法,以及与人工智能、大数据、空间信息技术相结合的新兴地震人员伤亡评估方法,介绍全球典型地震灾害损失评估系统的框架、技术特点以及应用情况,并探讨地震人员伤亡评估方法和系统的发展方向。Earthquake casualty estimation is key to earthquake resistance and hazard prevention planning prior to earthquakes and emergency rescue efforts after earthquakes.Scholars in the fields of earthquake engineering,geophysics,sociology,public health etc.have performed multi-perspective studies on this issue.Earthquake casualty assessment models are divided into global/regional models and local models.According to their relevant factors,they are categorized based on the appropriate seismic parameters and building fragility factors,and some researchers additionally consider the influence of secondary disasters and population characteristics.Following an introduction to the importance of earthquake casualty assessment work,traditional casualty estimation methods,and emerging methods combined with artificial intelligence,big data and spatial information technology are summarized in this review.The framework,technical foundation and application of earthquake loss estimation systems are introduced,and future development trends are envisioned.

关 键 词：综述 人员伤亡 地震参数 建筑易损性 承灾体 评估系统 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]