考虑时变潮流的配电系统规划-运行可靠性精细化评估研究  

Research on Distribution System Planning-Operation Reliability Refined Evaluation Considering Time Varying Power Flow

作　　者：张瀛 谢宁[1] 王承民[1] 苏毅方 俞伟 ZHANG Ying;XIE Ning;WANG Chengmin;SU Yifang;YU Wei(Department of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310007,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电气工程系,上海200240 [2]国网浙江省电力有限公司,杭州310007

出　　处：《电网与清洁能源》2021年第11期1-8,共8页Power System and Clean Energy

基　　金：国家电网公司总部科技项目“面向终端用户可靠性需求的配电网规划建设与供电恢复技术研究”(5400-202019117A-0-0-00)。

摘　　要：基于元件保护动作概率模型和同步采样模拟法,提出了一种考虑时变潮流的、适用于规划和运行两阶段的可靠性精细化评估方法。分析了元件连续工作时间的概率分布,推导了元件故障率随载荷变化的显式表达模型。进一步计算得到节点负荷对系统可靠性指标的灵敏度,从而比较分析各个节点新增负荷对系统可靠性的影响程度,并用于可靠性指标快速计算。在故障率、负荷随时间变化的前提下,应用同步采样模拟法进行其他可靠性指标的计算。算例部分计算了频率型指标的瞬时值,发现随着节点负荷的增长,元件处于较短的连续工作时间的概率会增加,系统可靠性因此降低。灵敏度分析评估了各个节点对系统可靠性的影响。同步采样模拟法计算了时间型、电量型指标以及频率型指标的年度值。Based on the component protection action probability model and the synchronous sampling simulation method,a refined reliability assessment method which takes into account the time-varying power flow and is suitable for the two stages of planning and operation is proposed.The probability distribution of the component's continuous working time is analyzed,and the explicit expression model of the component failure rate changing with the load is deduced.The sensitivity of the node load to the system reliability index is further calculated,so as to compare and analyze the influence degree of the new load of each node on the system reliability,and it is used for the rapid calculation of the reliability index.Under the premise that the failure rate and load change with time,the synchronous sampling simulation method is used to calculate other reliability indexes.The calculation example part calculated the instantaneous value of the frequency index,and found that as the node load increases,the probability that the component in a shorter continuous working time will increase,and the system reliability will therefore decrease.Sensitivity analysis evaluates the influence of each node on system reliability.The synchronous sampling simulation method calculates the annual values of time-type,power-type indicators,and frequency-type indicators.

关 键 词：可靠性评估 故障率 电网规划 电力潮流 模拟法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]