全球新冠肺炎疫情对国内外油价冲击的实证研究  

Empirical Study on the Impact of Global COVID-19 Epidemic on Oil Prices at Home and Abroad

作　　者：袁杰 袁中玉 杨云帆 赵凯 杨秀璋 罗子江[1] Yuan Jie;Yuan Zhongyu;Yang Yunfan;Zhao Kai;Yang Xiuzhang;Luo Zijiang(Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,School of Information,Guizhou Guiyang 550025)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学信息学院,贵阳550025

出　　处：《现代计算机》2021年第28期14-20,共7页Modern Computer

基　　金：贵州省青年科技人才成长项目“基于大数据和知识图谱的公共卫生事件智能预警与分析研究”(黔科合KY字[2021]135号);贵州省研究生教育创新计划“贵州省领域文献的科学知识图谱构建研究”(黔教合YJSCXJH[2020]120)。

摘　　要：旨在研究新冠肺炎疫情对国内和国际油市所造成的影响,为我国在医疗卫生突发事件下的油价政策调整提供参考依据。研究采用ESW模型和VAR模型,实证分析了疫情对国内油价及国际油价的影响。结果发现市场主导下的国际油价受到的冲击远超政府主导下的国内油价,政府主导型油价抗风险能力强、恢复能力高,市场主导型油价面对风险时波动较大且较难恢复,最后得到相关启示。The aim is to study the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on domestic and international oil markets,and to provide a ref⁃erence for China's oil price policy adjustment in the event of medical and health emergencies.Using ESW model and VAR model,this study empirically analyzed the impact of the epidemic on domestic and international oil prices.The results show that the impact of mar⁃ket-oriented international oil price is far greater than that of government-led domestic oil price.Government-led oil price has strong anti-risk ability and high recovery ability.Market-led oil price fluctuates greatly in the face of risks and is difficult to recover.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎 油价 冲击 

分 类 号：F764.1[经济管理—产业经济] F416.22