基本公共服务、城市规模与流动人口居留意愿——基于2010~2017年流动人口动态监测调查数据  

Access to Urban Public Services,City Size and Migrants’Settlement Intention:Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey(2010-2017)

作　　者：赵如婧 周皓[2] ZHAO Ru-jing;ZHOU Hao(Institute of Population and Labor Economics,The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China;Department of Sociology,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100710 [2]北京大学社会学系,北京100871

出　　处：《西北人口》2021年第6期1-16,共16页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“中国流动人口调查的比较研究”(19BRK039)。

摘　　要：文章基于2010至2017年六轮流动人口动态监测调查数据和相关城市统计年鉴数据,使用Logistic回归模型,讨论流入地城市的公共服务获得对流动人口居留意愿的影响作用及其作用在不同人群的异质性。历时回归结果表明,城市基本公共服务的获得均一致性地显著提升流动人口的居留意愿,在微观层次回应了城市公共服务和人口流动之间的亲和性。此外,获得基本公共服务对居留意愿的影响还受城市规模和性别的调节,多数年份的结果显示,公共服务的获得更有利于提升在超大城市居住的、女性流动人口的居留意愿,而公共服务与教育程度的交互项从显著变得不再显著,某种程度上意味着公共服务均等化开始发挥效用。上述发现在更换公共服务测量后依旧保持稳健。结论认为:公共服务均等化作为社会公共政策已逐步呈现有效性;应通过扩大城市的公共服务供给,以提升流动人口的居留意愿;但政策有效性与现实失效性之间的悖论不能简单地归因于政策失效,而应该多视角多维度地考察流动人口居留意愿的稳定性,以及公共服务政策的异质性效应。只有提高有针对性的公共服务的可获得性,才能真正提高流动人口的居留意愿。Based on six-rounds data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey and relevant statistical yearbooks,the impact of urban public service policy and city size on the migrants’residential intention and its heterogeneity in different subgroups in the destination cities were discussed,employing a binary logistic regression.The diachronic regression results show that,at the micro-level,the acquisition of urban public services is significantly beneficial to promote migrants’residential intention which is correspondent with the affinity of public service and population mobility.In addition,the impact of the access to public services on the migrant’s residential intention is also moderated by gender and the size of the city,in which the access to public services is conducive to improve female migrants’residential intention and the residential intention in mega cities.However,the interaction term of public service and educational level is gradually insignificant,which means the equalization of public service is taken action to some degree.Such findings remain consistently stable under the different measurements of public service.The conclusions are that the equalization of public services as a social policy has gradually shown its effectiveness,such that relevant agents should enlarge the supply of public services.In order to explain the paradox between policy effectiveness and practical failure,researchers should not simply attribute such paradox to the policy’s failure,but examine the stability of migrants’residential intention and the heterogeneous effect of public service policy from multiple perspectives and dimensions.Only by improving the availability of public services can we really promote targeted migrants’residential intention.

关 键 词：流动人口 居留意愿 城市规模 公共服务均等化 户籍制度 

分 类 号：D631.42[政治法律—政治学]