基于齐夫定律与吉布拉定律的国际比较--对游客活动轨迹的动态分布分析  

International comparison based on zipf's law and gibla's law--analysis of the dynamic distribution of tourist activity tracks

作　　者：金浏河 施健 JIN Liuhe;SHI Jian(Wenzhou Vocational and Technical College,Wenzhou Zhejiang 325035,China)

机构地区：[1]温州职业技术学院管理学院,浙江温州325035 [2]温州职业技术学院数字经贸学院,浙江温州325035

出　　处：《未来与发展》2021年第11期57-64,35,共9页Future and Development

基　　金：温州市科学技术局2020基础性科研项目“公私合作治理视阈下温州研学旅行服务供给的创新机制研究”(项目编号:R2020021)。

摘　　要：根据齐夫定律与吉布拉定律建立的数学模型,通过秩回归大小计算,对本地游客和入境游客进行比较,本地游客活动一直比较多样化,入境游客是目的地比较集中,活动轨迹符合齐夫定律。通过吉布拉定律的动态效应验证,本地游客数量将趋于稳步增长态势,入境游客数量在不同区域将出现高低平衡、差距缩小的趋势。采用秩时钟分析计算方法也能得出符合吉布拉定律的结论。According to the mathematical model established by Zipf's law and Gibla's law,local tourists and inbound tourists are compared through rank regression calculation.The activities of local tourists have always been diversified.Inbound tourists are more concentrated in the destination,and the activity trajectory Comply with Zipf's law.Through the dynamic effect verification of Gibla's Law,the number of local tourists will tend to increase steadily,and the number of inbound tourists will show a trend of high and low balance and narrowing gaps in different regions.The calculation method of rank clock analysis can also be used to draw conclusions that conform to Gibla's law.

关 键 词：齐夫定律 吉布拉定律 帕累托分布 秩大小回归 秩时钟 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]