宁夏能源消费与经济增长关系的实证分析——基于时间序列模型和Tapio脱钩指数法  

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in NingXia

作　　者：张海军 

机构地区：[1]宁夏中卫市沙坡头区发展和改革局,宁夏中卫755000

出　　处：《中国能源》2021年第10期72-78,共7页Energy of China

摘　　要：为研究宁夏能源消费与经济增长的关系,基于1980年一2020年能源消费和地区生产总值数据,运用时间序列模型进行了平稳性检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验并建立了误差修正模型,采用Tapio脱钩指数法分析了能源消费与经济增长的脱钩状态。结果表明:宁夏能源消费与经济增长存在协整关系,从长期来看能源消费每增长1%,经济增长1.06%,经济增长的实际值与均衡值之间1-36%的差异被正向修正。经济增长与能源消费存在单向格兰杰因果关系,二者未达到稳定、持久的弱脱钩状态。为此,建议宁夏以推动碳达峰、碳中和为契机,严控能耗强度和高耗能产业规模,完善环境规制,实施用能权交易,优化产业结构,打造新的增长点,实现经济增长从粗放型向集约型转变。In order to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Ningxia,based on the data of energy consumption and GDP from 1980 to 2020,this paper uses the time series model to carry out the stationarity test,cointegration test,error correction model and Granger causality test,and establish the error correction model.Besides,the Tapio decoupling index method is used to analyze the decoupling state between energy consumption and economic growth.The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Ningxia.In the long run,for every 1% increase in energy consumption,the economy will grow by 1.06%.The difference of 1.36% between the actual value and equilibrium value of economic growth is positively corrected.There is a one-way Granger causality between economic growth and energy consumption,and the two have not reached a stable and lasting weak decoupling state.Therefore,it is suggested that Ningxia take the opportunity of promoting carbon peak and carbon neutralization to strictly control the intensity of energy consumption and the scale of high-energy-consuming industries,improve environmental regulation,implement energy use right trading,optimize industrial structure,create new economic growth point,and realize the transformation of economic growth mode from extensive to intensive.

关 键 词：宁夏 能源消费 经济增长 时间序列 粗放型经济增长模式 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]