城乡收入差距对产业结构升级的影响机制研究——基于发展阶段转变视角  

Research on the Impact Mechanism of Urban-rural Income Gap on the Upgrading of Industrial Structure——Change Perspective Based on Development Stage

作　　者：程玉鸿[1] 程驰 Cheng Yuhong;Cheng Chi

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广州510632

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2021年第11期58-66,共9页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71673113),项目负责人:程玉鸿;粤港澳大湾区发展广州智库年度重点课题(2019GZWTZD06),项目负责人:程玉鸿;广州市人文社科重点基地自设项目(20JNZS58)联合资助,项目负责人:程玉鸿。

摘　　要：本文通过构建计量模型,采用工具变量2SLS方法,分阶段、分区域分析了城乡收入差距对产业结构升级的影响。结果表明,城乡收入差距对产业结构升级的影响高度依赖于宏观经济所处发展阶段。当经济发展处于供给约束阶段时,城乡收入差距的扩大将随着就业结构的变动而显著地促进产业结构升级;当处于需求约束阶段时,则可能因造成消费结构断层而阻碍产业结构的升级。区域异质性分析显示了逻辑一致性结论,对于我国处于较高发展阶段(需求约束)的东中部地区,城乡收入差距扩大将对产业结构升级产生明显的抑制效应,而对于处在相对较低发展阶段(供给约束)的西部地区则呈现相反的结果。这就需要我国在制定促进产业结构升级政策时,不仅应考虑宏观经济整体上所处发展阶段,还应充分关注区域发展的不平衡性,配合以相宜的城乡收入分配政策,为产业结构持续升级提供内生动力。By constructing the measurement model and using the instrumental variable 2 SLS method,the paper analyzes the influence of the urban and rural income gap on the industrial structure upgrading in stages and regions.The results show that the impact of urban-rural income gap on industrial structure upgrading is highly dependent on the macroeconomic development stage.When economic development is in the supply constraint stage,the expansion of urban and rural income gap will significantly promote the upgrading of industrial structure through the change of employment structure;when in the demand constraint stage,it may hinder the upgrading of industrial structure due to causing the consumption structure fault.Regional heterogeneity analysis shows the conclusion of logical consistency.For the eastern and central region of China in a high development stage(demand constraints),the expansion of the urban and rural income gap will have an obvious inhibitory effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,instead,the western region in a relatively low development stage(supply constraints).This requires that China should not only formulate policies for promoting industrial structure upgrading,but also should consider the overall development stage,but also pay full attention to the imbalance of regional development,and cooperate with appropriate urban and rural income distribution policies to provide endogenous impetus for the continuous upgrading of industrial structure.

关 键 词：城乡收入差距 产业结构升级 发展阶段转变 中介效应 

分 类 号：F124.6[经济管理—世界经济]