多主体建模在水资源管理中的应用:进展与展望  

Progress and Prospect of Agent-Based Modeling for Water Resources Management

作　　者：原世伟 李新 杜二虎[5] YUAN Shiwei;LI Xin;DU Erhu(Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Science,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院甘肃省遥感重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院青藏高原研究所青藏高原地球系统科学国家重点实验室,北京100101 [4]中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京100101 [5]南方科技大学环境科学与工程学院,深圳518055

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2021年第9期899-910,共12页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“黄河源冻土区生态水文过程对气候变化的响应”(编号:41630856)和国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“干旱地区农业水资源管理对水文过程的影响机理研究”(编号:51909118)资助。

摘　　要：多主体建模作为研究"人类与自然耦合系统"等复杂适应性系统的重要工具,已经被广泛地应用于水资源管理领域。在调研国内外重要研究的基础上,回顾了多主体建模的基础理论、建模工具和框架,并对多主体建模在城市水资源管理、农业水资源管理和流域水资源综合管理3个方面的研究和应用进行了阶段性总结。针对当前研究的不足和难点,结合我国水资源管理的研究现状,提出以下4个研究重点:(1)加强主体行为决策规则刻画;(2)加强模型验证和评估研究;(3)开展代表性流域多主体建模研究;(4)推动学科交叉和综合集成研究。多主体建模能够揭示人类活动—水文循环的互馈机制,为水资源及水环境的可持续利用和管理提供政策建议,加强多主体建模在水资源管理领域的研究可为水资源管理提供新的思路,推动我国水资源的可持续发展。Agent-Based Modeling(ABM)has proved to be an efficient and powerful tool to study coupled human and natural systems.In recent years,the use of ABM to track water resources management issues is increasingly popular.Based on the review at the interface of ABM and water resources management studies,the techniques,progresses,advantages and limitations are summarized.Three topic areas are identified,addressing different research issues in the field:urban water resources management,agricultural water resources management and integrated watershed water resources management.Overall,with ABM,human decisions and behaviors are linked with water systems.The underlying feedback mechanisms between human and water systems can be revealed and used for policy and strategy planning.However,there still exist some limitations that need to be improved through the following ways.Firstly,more realistic human decision rules are certainly needed.Machine learning and big data techniques can be applied for this purpose.Additionally,the validation and evaluation methods suitable for ABM should be developed and enhanced.Furthermore,it is recommended to continuously conduct researches at a representative basin to advance the application of ABM for water resources management.More importantly,multi-disciplines collaborations such as involving more social and psychological sciences in ABM should be promoted.In conclusion,ABM provides a new insight to deal with water resources management issues.Strengthening the application of ABM in water resources management could promote the sustainable management and development of water resources around the world.

关 键 词：多主体建模 复杂适应性系统 人类与自然耦合系统 人水耦合系统 水资源管理 

分 类 号：P933[天文地球—自然地理学]