突发疫情环境下网络舆情传播趋势预测及社会保障应急机制研究  

The Trend Forecast of Internet Public Opinion Dissemination and Social Security Emergency Mechanism in the Emergent Epidemic

作　　者：赵艺[1] 李平[2] ZHAO Yi;LI Ping(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;School of Computer Science,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500 [2]西南石油大学计算机科学学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《情报科学》2021年第11期45-50,共6页Information Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“供给侧结构性改革视角下城镇失能老人的智慧社区养老模式研究”(16CSH070);西南石油大学青年科技创新团队项目“中国养老保障研究”(2019CXTD11)。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】突发疫情环境下将形成大量网络舆情,准确把握网络舆情传播趋势可为突发疫情环境下的社会保障应急机制提供参考依据。【方法/过程】本文从网络舆情信息交互影响要素、网络舆情信息交互机理两方面分析突发疫情环境下网络舆情信息交互机理;并从网络舆情传播趋势特点考虑,以新冠病毒肺炎李文亮事件为例,采用Elman神经网络模型,选取网络信息数量以及情绪总量和主导情绪作为网络舆情传播趋势预测主要变量和辅助变量,对突发疫情环境下的网络舆情传播趋势进行预测分析,针对预测结果制定相关社会保障应急机制。【结果/结论】研究提出可通过完善网络舆情相关法律机制、社会参与机制、信息披露机制、社会监督机制、责任追究机制五项社会保障应急机制,以期为突发疫情环境下维持社会稳定性提供依据。【局限/创新】未来研究中可结合更多相关实例进行分析,从而使研究结论进一步得到丰富与深化。【Purpose/significance】A large number of online public opinions will be formed in the sudden epidemic environment,and accurately grasping the spreading trend of online public opinion can provide a reference for the social security emergency mechanism in the sudden epidemic environment.【Method/process】This article analyzes the mechanism of online public opinion information interaction in an outbreak environment from two aspects:the factors affecting the interaction of online public opinion information and the mechanism of online public opinion information interaction;and considering the characteristics of the spread of online public opinion,the new crown virus pneumonia Li Wenliang incident is taken as an example For example,the Elman neural network model is used to select the amount of network information,the total amount of sentiment,and the dominant sentiment as the main and auxiliary variables for predicting the trend of network public opinion transmission,to predict and analyze the trend of network public opinion transmission in an emergency situation,and formulate the prediction results Relevant social security emergency mechanism.【Result/conclusion】The study proposes that five social security emergency mechanisms can be improved through the improvement of legal mechanisms related to online public opinion,social participation mechanisms,information disclosure mechanisms,social supervision mechanisms,and accountability mechanisms,in order to provide the basis for maintaining social stability in a sudden epidemic environment.【Innovation/limitation】Future research can be combined with more relevant examples for analysis,so that the research conclusions can be further enriched and deepened.

关 键 词：突发疫情环境 网络舆情 传播趋势 社会保障 应急机制 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]