户籍登记制度改革与房价作用机制:以长江三角洲为例  

The Reform of Household Registration System and the Mechanism of Housing Price:Taking the Yangtze River Delta as an Example

作　　者：刘金山[1] 刘慧琳 程志强 LIU Jin-shan;LIU Hui-lin;CHENG Zhi-qiang

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院 [2]南京信息工程大学商学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2021年第5期116-130,共15页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“国家区域发展战略下的创新生态系统发展理论与政策研究”(项目编号:72034002,项目负责人:许治)。

摘　　要：户籍登记制度改革是削弱我国城乡之间壁垒的重要措施,有助于推动城镇化、乡村振兴及城乡融合发展。以2010-2019年长江三角洲地区城市群数据为样本,利用建立统一城乡户籍登记制度作为外生冲击,结合政策在长江三角洲地区冲击时间不一致的现实背景,运用多期双重差分法(DID),分析该政策对长江三角洲地区房价产生的净效应。结果表明:(1)所在城市实行户籍登记制度改革新政后,当地房价相应上涨;(2)大、中城市对户籍登记制度改革政策的吸收程度最好,超大特大城市以及小城市则不显著;(3)异质性检验结果显示,人口流动方向为正、城乡收入差距越大、城市基础设施越好,户籍登记制度改革对房价的促进效应越明显。The reform of the household registration system is another revolution to“liberate”farmers after the implementation of the household contract responsibility system in the 1980s.This paper uses the urban agglomeration data in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2019 as a sample,uses the establishment of a unified urban-rural household registration system as an exogenous impact,uses a multi-period double difference method(DID),and combines policies in the Yangtze River.The realistic background of the inconsistent impact time in the delta area,analyze the net effect of the policy on housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta area.The results showed that:(1)After the implementation of the new policy of household registration reform in the city,the local housing price rose correspondingly;(2)Large and medium-sized cities have the best absorption of household registration reform policies,while super-large cities and small cities are not significant;(3)The heterogeneity test found that:The direction of population flow is positive,the greater the urban-rural income gap,the better the urban infrastructure,and the household registration The reform s promotion effect on housing prices is more obvious.

关 键 词：户籍登记制度改革 房价 城镇化 人口流动 多期双重差分法 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]