中美战略竞争下的战略第三方选择:基于海量事件数据的中美印、中美俄、中美欧VAR模型分析  

Strategic Third Party Choice under Sino-U.S.Competition:VAR Models of Sino-U.S.-India,Sino-U.S.-Russia and Sino-U.S.-European Dynamics based on Large-N Data

作　　者：曹玮[1] Cao Wei

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院国际政治系

出　　处：《当代亚太》2021年第5期39-74,166,167,共38页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：2021年度国家社科基金一般项目“中美竞合战略第三方因素的影响机制、未来趋势及对策研究”(项目编号:21BGJ007)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：随着中美战略竞争的加剧,战略第三方对中美关系和中国外部战略环境的重要性日益凸显。为探究中美战略竞争和美国对战略第三方政策会如何影响战略第三方的对华政策,文章运用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解模型,揭示了中国、美国和三个战略第三方——印度、俄罗斯和欧盟——自2008年以来的动态互动规律。研究发现,随着美国对中国的遏压加剧,印度和俄罗斯对华政策中的冲突性因素可能增加,而欧盟则可能改善对华关系。美国改善与欧盟关系将导致欧盟采取对华疏远的政策,美国对印度的持续示好和拉拢可能会在一定程度上促使印度加强对中国的敌对政策,俄罗斯对华政策则不受美国对俄罗斯政策的影响。根据上述发现,如果中美战略竞争持续和加剧,中俄关系中的不稳定因素可能显现,甚至可能出现印俄两国同时对中国构成挑战的被动局面,欧盟则可能成为缓解中国外部战略压力的重要突破口。In order to understand how Sino-U.S.strategic competition and America’s policy towards strategic third parties influence the China policies of these strategic third parties,this article applies a VAR model using impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition to illustrate patterns in the dynamics between China,America and three strategic third parties:India,Russia,and the European Union since 2008.The research finds that as the U.S.scales up efforts to contain China,India and Russia may both face greater levels of tensions vis-à-vis their policies towards China,while the European Union will likely improve relations with the later.American efforts to improve relations with the E.U.will in turn result in a European policy of isolation from China,while U.S.signals to India that intends to enhance ties may cause the later to adopt a more adversarial policy towards China.Meanwhile,Russian policy to China is not impacted by the U.S.policy towards Russia.Based on the above,should China-U.S.strategic competition continue to intensify,China-Russia relations may become less stable,and a passive situation where both India and Russia even represent a challenge to China may emerge.For its part,the European Union may come to offer China an important outlet for reducing its external strategic pressure.

关 键 词：中美俄战略三角 中美印战略三角 中美欧战略三角 中美战略竞争 大数据 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]