理解边界诉求结束:一国第三方贸易集中度与他国可信承诺  

Understanding the Conclusion of Border Claims:A State’s Extradyadic Trade Concentration and the Issue of Credible Commitment

作　　者：姚炯 Yao Jiong

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2021年第5期136-165,168,共31页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：中山大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“邻国间贸易关系与边界争端的结束”(项目编号:65000-31610122)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：一国第三方贸易集中度如何影响国家间边界诉求的结束?文章将一国第三方贸易集中度与边界诉求结束相结合,指出若一国因第三方贸易高度集中而在边界纠纷中向邻国让步,这可能使得后者以及第三方贸易伙伴利用该国这一弱点,在日后面临领土及其他议题时,要求其做出更多让步。因此,他国可信承诺问题使得该国不愿在边界问题上让步,因而阻碍了相关边界诉求结束。借助考克斯风险比例模型与竞争风险模型,基于1948~2001年相关数据的实证检验,文章支持了这一观点,同时贴合"贸易和平论"研究的最新发展,文章创新性地将国家第三方贸易集中度与可信承诺机制相结合,论证其对边界诉求结束的影响,对于如何处理中印之间的边界纠纷也具有一定的启发。In this article,the author argues if a state concedes to its neighbor over their border dispute due to the state’s high extradyadic trade concentration,both the state’s neighbor and its extradyadic trade partners may ask the state to concede more over border or other issues in the future.Therefore,the credible commitment concern about its neighbor and other extradyadic trade partners makes the state reluctant to concede over that border dispute,which in turn impedes the conclusion of related border claim.With the help of Cox and competing risk models,the empirical analysis based on the relevant data from 1948 to 2001 supports this argument.This study follows the latest development of the"trade-conflict"research,connects the idea of a state’s extradyadic trade concentration with the credible commitment issue,and explores the former’s influence on the conclusion of border claims.

关 键 词：边界诉求结束 贸易和平论 第三方贸易集中度 可信承诺 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]