基于MACD指标的民用机场安全风险趋势预测  

On the flying safety risk prediction and forecast of the civilian airports based on the MACD index

作　　者：孙殿阁 SUN Dian-ge(Institute of Safety Engineering,China University of Industrial Relations,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]中国劳动关系学院安全工程学院,北京100048

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第5期1911-1918,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：中国劳动关系学院教改项目(JYJG201902);中国劳动关系学院科研项目(20XYJS025)。

摘　　要：为了解决民用机场安全趋势预测时所面临的预测方法主观性较大、预测结果不够科学,以及以伤亡事故信息作为预测源头数据的数据量不足等问题,首先,引入金融领域应用比较成熟的预测方法--异同移动平均线(Moving Average Convergence/Divergence,MACD)指标预测方法,构建了民用机场安全风险趋势分析预测模型。该模型原理是运用两条不同速度的平滑移动平均线来计算两者的正负差--离差,再由离差的多日平均值计算离差平均值。通过观察离差值和离差平均值的方向、绝对位置和相对位置关系,将它们的同向、异向和交叉作为判断趋势翻转的时机。其次,依据《民用航空安全信息管理规定》(交通运输部令2016年第8号)、GB 3836.18—2010《爆炸性环境第18部分:本质安全系统》等相关的法律、法规及标准对安全风险信息的分类及收集范围进行了界定,并按照该安全风险信息的收集与分类方法收集了某机场3年的安全风险信息,运用上述模型进行了相关预测研究。最后,运用相关性分析及ABC管理图做了因素分析,给出了整改建议。结果表明,该模型方法能够比较贴近实际地预测企业的安全风险趋势情况,并能够从定性及定量两个维度提供解决问题的方法,为民用机场安全管理决策提供了一种新的思路。In order to solve the above problems,this paper has introduced a mature forecasting or predicting method of MACD index in the financial field.At the same time,it has also done an analysis and prediction model for the safety risk trend in the field of the civil airports.Traditional prediction methods of the safety risk trend in the field of civil airports have such disadvantages as being subjective,which may lead to prediction results being unscientific with the data of accident casualty and material loss statistics uncertain and valueless.Therefore,the principle of the model we have worked out is to adopt 2 smooth moving average lines—the exponential moving average(EMA)to calculate the positive and negative difference,i.e.the differential value(DIF)between them,and then calculate the average value of the DIF-the discrete exponential average(DEA)from the multi-day average value of the DIF.And,so,following the direction,it would be possible for us to get chance to judge the reversal trend of the absolute and relative positions of the DEA and the DIF,i.e.the same directions,the different directions and the intersection of their crossing.And,secondly,the paper has also defined the classification and collection scope of the safety risk information in accordance with the relevant laws,regulations and criteria,such as the regulations on the management of the civil aviation safety information(Order No.8 of the Ministry of Traffic and Transportation in 2016,and,the GB 3836.18—2010 Explosive Environment Part 18:Intrinsic Safety System),etc.which have collected the safety risk pieces of information of the airports for successive 3 years according to the collection and classification method of the safety risk information.The paper of ours has also finished the relevant prediction research by using the above models and data.And,finally,the paper has also made factor analysis by using the correlation analysis and ABC management chart,with the rectification suggestions being given.The results of our study above mentioned in

关 键 词：安全工程 民用机场 管理决策 安全风险 趋势预测 MACD指标预测 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]