基于正交试验-多元回归的煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测  

Prediction and forecast of the coal mining gas emission based on the orthogonal test and multiple regression

作　　者：贾进章[1,2] 柯丁琳 陈怡诺 JIA Jin-zhang;KE Ding-lin;CHEN Yi-nuo(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Liaoning Technical University,Fuxin 123000,Liaoning,China;Key Laboratory of Mine Power Disaster and Prevention of Ministry of Education,Huludao 125105,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院,辽宁阜新123000 [2]矿山热动力灾害与防治教育部重点实验室,辽宁葫芦岛125105

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第5期2037-2044,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51374121);辽宁省百千万人才工程资助项目(2019-45-15);辽宁特聘教授资助项目(551710007007)。

摘　　要：为了快速准确地预测工工作面瓦斯涌出量,简化瓦斯涌出量预测建模过程,将正交设计方法与多元回归分析相结合提出了简化的预测模型,并针对实际矿井数据进行应用。结果表明,结合正交设计中的极差和方差分析可以有效剔除对瓦斯涌出量影响不显著的因素,该剔除结果与SPSS软件显著性分析结果一致,利用SPSS软件对剩余的瓦斯涌出量影响因素进行多元回归分析得到相应的回归模型,经检验其预测结果相对误差平均值为1.76%,回归模型具有较高的精确度,可为煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测工作提供一定的参考。The given paper intends to propose a simplified forecasting model by combining the orthogonal design method with the multivariate regression analysis and the orthogonal design steps.In order to predict the gas emission in the working face fleetly and accurately.And,to achieve the said purpose,we have first of all been trying to manage to determine the actual level value of each influential factor of the gas emission via the subsection statistics.And,then,we have managed to work out a proper orthogonal table and fill it in the gas emission data in accordance with the individual testing schedule.And,next,3 groups of the data we have worked out can be suggested and recommended at least to calculate and work out the average value before filling in the above mentioned table to get rid of the random errors.And.last of all,all the influential factors can be illustrated with a small amount of the experimental data on the screen through the range analysis and ANOVA.And,consequently,the range analysis of the orthogonal test may help us to examine all the influential factors on the change of the gas emission,the coal seam burial depth,the coal-mining intensity,the original gas content of the coal seam,the mining yield rate,the inclining angle of the coal seam,and,even the coal thickness of the adjacent layers.At the same time,we have also determined that the optimized synthesis of the factors should be the minimalist gas emission to the depth of the buried coal seam,which ought to be 400 m underneath,with the mining intensity being1500 t/d and the original gas content of coal seam being 2.5 m^(3)/t.Thus,the consequential analysis for the mining yield rate has to be at about 94%,with the thickness of the adjacent layers being 1.45 m,as well as with the inclination angle of the coal seam being 5°.And,so,fruitfully,the F ratio of ANOVA results at a different confidence rate,the confidence of the primary and secondary layers may help to verify the rest 2 factors further,which can be expected to get eliminated for they wouldn�

关 键 词：安全工程 矿山安全 瓦斯涌出量 正交试验 回归分析 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]