日本对华安全战略:一项制衡议程的新近分析  

Japan’s Security Strategy towards China:An Analysis of a Balancing Agenda

作　　者：吴怀中[1] Wu Huaizhong

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院日本研究所

出　　处：《日本学刊》2021年第5期59-86,161,162,164,165,共32页Japanese Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“日本‘军事崛起’与我国对策研究”(编号:17AGJ009)。

摘　　要：在亚洲及中国周边国家中,日本是对华采取制衡战略的最典型国家。当前,其围绕"制华"虽在大力推进依靠自我力量的内部制衡,但仍需主要依靠强化同盟与均势的外部制衡。在中美战略竞争加剧、大国博弈错综复杂的新形势下,日本的这种内外制衡显现同步走强、互促交融趋向。同时,日本为解决内部制衡的实力差距和手段欠缺问题,正着力推进经济安全政策与攻击军力构建;为解决外部制衡中存在的"同盟疑虑"问题,正采取以"两海"为抓手拴留美国、同时打造"准同盟"体系并引之入亚的两大举措。日本对华制衡也面临各种艰巨的内外制约因素,为中日关系策略性转圜留下了一定操作空间。宏观看,制衡作为日本对华安全战略要义,导致中日政治安全关系总体趋于紧张,也使中国改善对日关系的努力难以取得突破性进展。In Asia and China’s neighboring countries,Japan is the most typical country that adopts the strategy of counterbalancing China.At present,although vigorously promoting internal balancing with its own strength,Japan still needs to mainly rely on external balancing and balances by strengthening alliance and balance of power.In the new situation of intensified strategic competition between China and the United States and complex game between major power,Japan’s internal and external counterbalancing against China show a trend of simultaneous strengthening and mutual promotion.In order to solve the problems of lacking in power and means while conducting the internal balancing,Japan makes efforts in promoting economic security policy and building offensive military capacity.Meanwhile,in order to solve the problem of"alliance doubt"in conducting external balancing,Japan takes two major measures to keep the United States by making use of issues of"two Seas"and building a"quasi-alliance"system and attract it into Asia.Of course,Japan’s counterbalancing against China also faces various formidable internal and external constraints and dilemmas,which has left some room for manoeuvre in the strategic turnaround of China-Japan relations.At a macro level,as the essence of Japan’s security strategy towards China,balancing leads to the strained political and security relations between China and Japan,and also makes it difficult for China to achieve a breakthrough in its efforts to improve relations with Japan.

关 键 词：日本安全战略 对华制衡 结盟 准同盟 中日关系 

分 类 号：D822.3[政治法律—政治学] D871.2[政治法律—外交学]