通用型技术对就业结构的影响——基于“宽带中国”示范城市政策的研究  

The Impact of General-purpose Technology on the Employment Structure:Evidence from“Broadband China”Demonstration City

作　　者：陈建伟 苏丽锋 Chen Jianwei;Su Lifeng

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学教育与开放经济研究中心

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2021年第5期32-47,126,127,共18页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“新时代中国流动人口就业质量及其对高质量城镇化的影响研究”(编号:19AJL013)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文章利用"宽带中国"示范城市政策构建多期渐次DID模型,分析ICT类通用型技术对就业结构的影响。研究结果表明:(1)ICT类通用型技术加速了城市就业结构从制造业向服务业的转型,主要表现为示范政策变量显著降低了制造业就业份额,且政策实施后动态效应渐次增强。(2)城市市场规模辅助解释了就业结构转型效应异质性,市场规模越大的城市就业结构转型效应越强。(3)网络效应是通用型技术影响就业结构的重要机制,存在较强网络效应的信息服务业受影响后就业份额显著上升,网络效应弱的服务行业就业份额变化不明显,而高度依赖信息服务中间投入的金融服务业就业份额下降。然而,网络效应较强行业的就业份额增量小于制造业就业份额减量,潜在含义是通用型技术推动就业结构转型的同时,可能会引起结构性失业。This paper uses the policy of"Broadband China"demonstration city to construct a Difference-in-Differences settings with staggered adoption to identify the effects of General-purpose technology(Information and Communication Technology)on transformation of the employment structure.The results show that:(1)ICT accelerates the transformation of urban employment structure from manufacturing to service industry.Demonstration city policy has significantly reduced the employment share of manufacturing sector,and the dynamic effects gradually increase after the implementation of the policy.(2)The market scale of city helps explain the heterogeneity of the transformation effect of employment structure.Cities with larger market size have relatively stronger effects on employment structure transformation.(3)Network effect is an important mechanism for general-purpose technology to affect employment structure.What can be observed are a positive effect on the employment share of information service industry with strong network effect,an insignificant effect on the share with weak network effect,and a negative effect on the share of financial service industry,which is highly dependent on intermediate input of information service.However,the increment of employment share in industries with strong network effect is lower than the decrease in manufacturing employment share,which potentially means that the general-purpose technology may cause structural unemployment when promoting the transformation of employment structure.

关 键 词：通用型技术 宽带中国 网络效应 就业结构 

分 类 号：TN91[电子电信—通信与信息系统] F249.2[电子电信—信息与通信工程]