空间外溢效应与中国房价连片上涨:推拉作用与空间惯性  

Spatial Spillover Effects and Continuous Rising in China’s Housing Prices:Push-pull Effect and Spatial Inertia

作　　者：徐春华 龚维进 郑琼洁[3] XU Chunhua;GONG Weijin;ZHENG Qiongjie(The School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China;College of Urban Economics and Public Administration, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China;Nanjing Academy of Social Sciences, Nanjing 210018, China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005 [2]首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院,北京100070 [3]南京市社会科学院,江苏南京210018

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2021年第6期28-41,共14页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目“马克思社会再生产循环思想的理论探源、现代范式与当代价值研究”(2072021121);广东省软科学研究计划项目“粤港澳大湾区人才红利空间分布与知识产权密集型产业发展路径研究”(2019A101002056);首都经济贸易大学北京市属高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“消费经济与区域经济增长及空间差异性研究”(XRZ2021049)。

摘　　要：中国的房价(尤其是东部地区房价)在地理空间上呈现连片上涨的特征,在时间维度上呈现逐年攀升的趋势。使用2009—2016年中国285个地级市的空间面板数据,构造并选择最优的空间计量回归模型,探析中国房价连片上涨现象背后的主要影响因素。研究发现:城市的土地价格是房价的主要“推力”,不仅目标城市的地价会推高自身以及邻居城市的房价,而且邻居城市的地价同样会推高目标城市的房价。来自中等收入人口的房价拉力更倾向于拉高该城市自身的房价,而来自高收入人口的房价拉力则倾向于拉高邻居城市的房价。邻居城市房价对目标城市房价的影响是一个不断强化冲高的空间惯性过程。Based on the spatial panel data of 285 cities in China from 2009 to 2016,this paper selects the optimal spatial econometric regression model to analyze the continuous rising in China’s housing prices.The result shows that the land price is the main“pushing force”for housing prices,the land price in the target city could not only push up the housing price of itself and neighboring cities,but the neighboring city’s land price will also push up the target city’s housing prices.The pulling force of housing prices from upper middle income populations tends to raise the target city’s own housing prices,while the pulling force from high-income populations tend to raise the housing prices in neighboring cities.The impact of neighboring city housing prices on target city housing prices is a spatial inertia process that will constantly be intensified and rise.

关 键 词：房价 空间外溢效应 土地价格 收入水平 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]