2019年6月17日四川长宁M_(S)6.0地震灾害损失快速评估精准性分析  

Contrastive analysis of the accuracy of rapid assessment of earthquake disaster losses by Sichuan Changning M_(S) 6.0 earthquake on June 17,2019

作　　者：任静[1] 李志强 李晓丽 黄帅堂 谭专条 陈雅慧 于晨 姚琪 REN Jing;Li Zhiqiang;LI Xiaoli;Huang Shuaitang;TAN Zhuantiao;CHEN Yahui;YU Chen;YAO Qi(China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China;Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,China;Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,乌鲁木齐830011 [3]中国地震局预测研究所,北京100036

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2021年第4期67-79,共13页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(项目编号:2018YFE0109700);地震动力学国家重点实验室(项目编号:LED2019B08);中国地震台网中心青年基金(项目编号:QNJJ-202105);中国地震台网中心青年基金(项目编号:QNJJ-202102)。

摘　　要：地震发生时刻、震级、极震区烈度评估、烈度衰减关系模型、人员伤亡评估模型、房屋震害矩阵等是影响地震灾害损失计算的主要因素,各因素存在不确定性,导致评估结果与实际结果存在一定差距。文中对2019年6月19日四川长宁6.0级地震灾害损失快速评估精准性进行分析,探讨极震区烈度评估、地震影响场、烈度衰减关系模型、人员伤亡评估模型、房屋震害矩阵对评估结果的影响及与真实结果存在的偏差,结果表明,提高地震影响场评估、人口、房屋建筑等数据空间分布精准性,是提高地震灾害损失快速评估系统精准性的基础和前提。The earthquake occurrence time,magnitude,intensity assessment of extreme earthquake zone,intensity attenuation relationship model,casualty assessment model,building damage matrix,etc.are the main factors affecting the calculation of earthquake disaster loss.There are uncertainties in each factor,which lead to the differences between assessment results and actual results.This study analyzes the accuracy of the rapid assessment of disaster loss for the Changning M_(S) 6.0 earthquake in Sichuan on June 19,2019,and discusses the influence of the intensity assessment of the extreme earthquake zone,the earthquake influence field,the intensity attenuation relationship model,the casualty assessment model,and the building earthquake damage matrix on the evaluation results and the deviations from the real results.Research shows that improving the accuracy of the spatial distribution of data such as earthquake impact field assessment,population,and building construction is the basis and prerequisite for improving the accuracy of the results of the earthquake disaster loss rapid assessment system.

关 键 词：四川长宁 地震灾害损失 烈度 人员伤亡 人口分布 易损性矩阵 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]