基于油松树轮重建晋东南地区近296年来1—6月降水变化  

Reconstructing January-June precipitation in Southeastern Shanxi over the past 296 years inferred from tree-ring records of Pinus tabuliformis

作　　者：曹红华 赵晓恩 陈峰 王世杰[1] 刘兴华 CAO Hong-hua;ZHAO Xiao-en;CHEN Feng;WANG Shi-jie;LIU Xing-hua(Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco Security,Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security,Yunnan University,Kunming 650504,China;Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical Chemic Research of China Meteorological Administration,Institute of Desert Meteorology,Chinese Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Guancenshan State-owned Forest Management Bureau of Shanxi Province,Xinzhou 036700,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学,国际河流与生态安全研究院国际河流与跨境生态安全重点实验室,昆明650504 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830002 [3]山西省管涔山国有林管理局,山西忻州036700

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2021年第10期3618-3626,共9页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(32061123008);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(IDM2018003)资助。

摘　　要：区域历史气候变化研究受观测数据限制,不利于认识长时间尺度上气候变化情况。本研究采用山西省东南部油松树轮样芯,建立采样区树轮年表,分析降水变化与树轮宽度年表之间的关联。结果表明:树轮差值年表(RES)与1—6月的降水量变化有较好的相关性,(r=0.636,n=59,P<0.01)。采用线性回归方法分析山西省东南部区域1724—2019年1—6月的降水重建序列,方差解释量为40.4%,经检验重建方程稳定可靠。对降水重建序列特征分析表明,1724—2019年存在10个极端干旱年和6个极端湿润年,经历了6次干旱期(1742—1771、1830—1848、1872—1894、1917—1945、1961—1981和1990—2019年)、4次湿润期(1727—1741、1772—1829、1849—1871和1895—1916年)。最长干旱期为1742—1771、1990—2019年,最长湿润期为1772—1829年。对于过去296年,降水变化序列存在2.3、3.2~3.3、3.7~3.8、6.3~6.7和8.3~8.7年周期变化特征,其中2.3年的周期与"准两年脉动"周期重合,3.2~3.3、3.7~3.8和6.3~6.7年的周期可能与厄尔尼诺和南方涛动的变化存在一定关系。空间相关分析表明,重建降水序列能够较好地代表研究区域范围的降水变化。The study of regional historical climate change is limited by the availability of observational data,which is not conducive to understanding long-term climate change.In this study,we used the tree-ring cores of Pinus tabuliformis to establish a tree ring width chronology(RES)from the southeast Shanxi Province,and analyzed the relationship between precipitation and tree-ring width chronology.The results showed that the residual chronology had a good correlation(r=0.636,n=59,P<0.01)with January-June precipitation.A linear regression was used to reconstruct the January-June precipitation for the southeastern Shanxi Province,which accounts for 40.4%of the instrumental precipitation variation during 1724-2019.Dry conditions occurred during 1742-1771,1830-1848,1872-1894,1917-1945,1961-1981,and 1990-2019,while the periods of 1727-1741,1772-1829,1849-1871,1895-1916 were relatively wet.There were 10 extremely dry years and six extremely wet years during the period from 1724 to 2019.The longest dry periods were 1742-1771 and 1990-2019,while the longest wet period was 1772-1829.Results of spatial climate correlation analyses with gridded land surface data showed that the precipitation reconstruction contained a strong regional precipitation signal for southeast Shanxi Province.Power spectrum analysis of the precipitation reconstruction showed remarkable 2.3,3.2-3.3,3.7-3.8,6.3-6.7,8.3-8.7 years cycles for the past 296 years,the 2.3 year cycle corresponds to the‘quasi-two-year pulsation’,and the 3.2-3.3,3.7-3.8 and 6.3-6.7 year cycles might have a certain relationship with ENSO.Results of the spatial correlation analysis showed that the reconstructed precipitation series could better represent precipitation changes in the study area.

关 键 词：树木年轮 降水重建 水文响应 晋东南 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]