基于模糊综合评价和主成分分析法的岩溶流域水资源承载力评价  

Carrying Capacity Evaluation of Water Resources in Karst Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Principal Component Analysis

作　　者：陈丽 周宏[1] CHEN Li;ZHOU Hong(Institute of Geological Survey,China University of Geoscience(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,Cina)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)地质调查研究院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2021年第6期159-173,共15页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：中国地质调查局项目(DD20190824)。

摘　　要：水资源承载力评价是水资源合理开发利用和管理的重要基础。岩溶流域水循环过程复杂,水资源的禀赋存在空间异质性,因此基于水资源评价的基础开展水资源承载力评价十分有必要。基于径流模数法计算了长阳县的水资源量,在此基础上结合当地社会经济和生态环境状况,构建了长阳县水资源承载力评价指标体系和指标分级标准,采用模糊综合评价法和主成分分析法对长阳县县域和乡镇的水资源综合承载力进行了评价,并对两种评价方法的评价结果进行了对比。结果表明:2015—2019年长阳县城水资源承载力综合评分值都处于Ⅱ级,水资源综合承载力属于中等水平,且近五年水资源承载力变化趋势整体呈缓慢下降趋势;长阳县各乡镇水资源承载力也均处于Ⅱ级,但其中榔坪镇、资丘镇、大堰乡、都镇湾镇和磨市镇属于中等偏高水平;相较主成分分析法的评价结果,模糊综合评价法更适合岩溶地区水资源承载力评价。依据评价结果分析水资源承载力的提高途径,可为长阳县国土空间规划、"三区三线"的划定提供科学依据,也可为岩溶流域水资源承载力评价提供借鉴。The carrying capacity evaluation of water resources is an important basis for the rational exploitation,utilization and management of water resources.Water circulation in karst areas is complex,and there is spatial heterogeneity in the endowment of water resources.So it is necessary to carry out the carrying capacity evaluation of water resources based on the water resource evaluation.Based on the runoff modulus method to calculate the amount of water resources in Changyang County,and combined with the local socio-economic and ecological environment,this paper constructs the evaluation index system and grading standards to assess the comprehensive carrying capacity of water resources of Changyang County and towns by using the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method and the Principal Component Analysis method.The results show that the comprehensive evaluation value of the carrying capacity of water resources in Chang-yang County from 2015 to 2019 is at the second level,the comprehensive carrying capacity of water resources is medium,and the overall change of the carrying capacity of water resources in the past five years has shown a slow downward trend.The carrying capacity of water resources of the towns is also at the se-cond level.However,the carrying capacity of water resources of Langping Town,Ziqiu Town,Dayan Town,Duzhenwan Town and Moshi Town belongs to a medium to high level.Compared with the Principal Component Analysis method,the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method is more applicable for the carrying capacity evaluation of water resources in karst areas.Analyzing the ways to improve the carrying capacity of water resources based on the evaluation results can provide a scientific basis for the territory development plan of Changyang and the delineation of the"three areas and three line",as well as a reference for the evaluation of the carrying capacity of water resources in karst basins.

关 键 词：岩溶流域 水资源承载力评价 模糊综合评价法 主成分分析法 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]