2000—2018年全球恐怖袭击事件危害评价及时空演变研究  

RESEARCH ON THE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL TERRORIST ATTACKS FROM 2000 TO 2018

作　　者：王武林 林瑶[2] 徐宗煌[3] 曾献君 汪呈绚 WANG Wu-lin;LIN Yao;XU Zong-huang;ZENG Xian-jun;WANG Cheng-xuan(Institute of Geographic Sciences mid Natural Resources Research,Beijing 100101,China;College of Environment nnd Safety Eegineering,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108y China;School of Applied Science and Engineering,Fuzhou Institute of Technology,Fuzhou 350506,China;School of Architecture,South China University of Tcchnology/Statc Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science,Guangzhou 510006,Chinn;School of Architecture and Planning,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]福州大学环境与安全工程学院,福州350108 [3]福州理工学院应用科学与工程学院,福州350506 [4]华南理工大学建筑学院/亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室,广州510006 [5]福建工程学院建筑与城乡规划学院,福州350118

出　　处：《人文地理》2021年第5期92-100,共9页Human Geography

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金项目(2018M641458);国家自然科学基金项目(41701118,41801160);华南理工大学亚热带建筑科学重点实验室项目(2020ZB12);福建省软科学项目(2017R0051)。

摘　　要：本文运用模糊综合评价、K-Means聚类等方法,探讨了全球恐怖袭击事件的危害程度及时空演变特征。研究发现:(1)发生频次最高的年份为2010年和2011年,地区为南亚、中东和北非,袭击类型为轰炸/爆炸,国家包括印度、伊拉克、巴基斯坦等;(2)危害程度越高的恐怖袭击事件其集中化程度越高;一级、二级事件主要分布在中东和北非、南亚等地区,三级、四级和五级事件主要分布在南亚、中东和北非及东南亚等地区;(3)空间上大致分为中东、中亚和南亚三大活跃区,菲律宾群岛等九大次级活跃区,爪哇岛和苏门答腊岛等其他风险区。本文对理解恐怖主义特征以及全球共同抵制恐怖主义具有重要参考价值。In this paper,the data recorded in the Global Terrorism Database from 2000 to 2018 are sorted out,and the damage degree and spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the global terrorist attacks are discussed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and K-Means clustering.The results show that:1)The most frequent years are 2010 and 2011,and the districts are South Asia,Middle East,and North Africa.While countries with the highest frequency are India,Iraq,Pakistan,etc,and the types of attacks are bombing/explosion;2)The higher the damage degree,the higher the concentration degree of terrorist attacks.The first-level and second-level terrorist attacks are mainly distributed in the Middle East,North Africa and South Asia,while the third-level,fourth-level and fifth-level terrorist attacks are mainly distributed in South Asia,Middle East,North Africa and Southeast Asia;3)It can be divided into three active regions in the Middle East,Central Asia and South Asia,nine secondary active regions such as Philippine Islands,and other risk regions such as Java and Sumatra.This paper has important reference for understanding the characteristics of terrorism resisting terrorism globally.

关 键 词：恐怖袭击事件 危害程度 时空演变 全球 

分 类 号：K901.4[历史地理—人文地理学]