考虑孤岛源-荷不确定性的直流配电网可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of DC Distribution Network Considering Islanding Source-Load Uncertainty

作　　者：马钰 韦钢 李扬 李牧 邓申玮 Ma Yu;Wei Gang;Li Yang;Li Mu;Deng Shenwei(School of Electric Power Engineering Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai,200090,China;Cixi Power Supply Company of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power,Ningbo,315300,China;Jiaxing Power Supply Company of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power,Jiaxing,314000,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学电气工程学院,上海200090 [2]国网浙江慈溪市供电有限公司,宁波315300 [3]国网浙江省电力有限公司嘉兴供电公司,嘉兴314000

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2021年第22期4726-4738,共13页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金(51807114);上海绿色能源并网工程技术研究(13DZ2251900)资助项目。

摘　　要：针对含高渗透率分布式发电(DG)的直流配电网,提出一种考虑孤岛源-荷不确定性的直流配电网可靠性评估方法。根据设备的运行状态及冗余度,分别建立了换流器、直流变压器和直流断路器的马尔科夫可靠性模型。针对DG及负荷的不确定性,利用多场景技术(包括拉丁超立方抽样、结合Nataf变换的Cholesky分解和场景削减技术)生成孤岛内源-荷典型场景,提出一种考虑孤岛持续时间的孤岛形成概率计算方法,结合DG供电情况及孤岛形成概率对最小路法进行改进,采用改进后的最小路法计算直流配电网可靠性指标。通过算例验证了所提方法的有效性,对比了DG接入前后负荷点及系统的可靠性指标。Aiming at the DC distribution network with High-penetration DG,a reliability evaluation method of DC distribution network considering the uncertainty of island source-load is proposed.According to the operating status and redundancy of the equipment,Markov reliability models of the inverter,DC transformer and DC circuit breaker are established.Aiming at the uncertainty of DG and load,multi-scenario technology(including Latin hypercube sampling,Cholesky decomposition combined with Nataf transform,scenario reduction technology)is used to generate islanding source-load typical scenarios,and a calculation method of island formation probability considering the duration of island is proposed.The minimum path method is improved based on the DG power supply situation and the probability of island formation,and the improved minimum path method is used to calculate the reliability indices of the DC distribution network.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by calculation examples,and the reliability indices of load points and the system before and after DG access are compared.

关 键 词：马尔科夫 直流配电网 可靠性 分布式电源 计划孤岛 最小路法 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]