中国暖温带木本植物物候模拟分析  

Simulation analysis on phenology of woody plants in the warm-temperate region of China

作　　者：于裴洋 同小娟[1] 李俊[2] 张静茹 刘沛荣 解晗 Yu Peiyang;Tong Xiaojuan;Li Jun;Zhang Jingru;Liu Peirong;Xie Han(School of Ecology and Nature Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学生态与自然保护学院,北京100083 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2021年第11期28-39,共12页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31872703、31570617)。

摘　　要：【目的】植物物候能指示自然环境中的气象和水文变化。采用SW模型模拟木本植物的物候期,分析SW模型的有效性和适用性;结合植物生物学特性分析SW模型模拟效果差异产生的原因,为今后物候模型及物候期研究提供基础。【方法】基于沈阳、北京、西安、洛阳等10个站点观测的地面物候数据(叶芽开放期、展叶始期、开花始期和叶变色期)与气象数据,利用模拟退火法对SW模型的参数进行了估计,并对模型进行内部检验及交叉检验,评价模型的准确度及适用性。【结果】研究区域各地近50年的气温呈上升趋势。除洛阳、德州外其余地点春季物候期均为显著提前趋势。其中,泰安的紫薇开花始期提前最为显著,以每10年−4.96 d的速度提前,北京的银杏叶芽开放期提前趋势最不显著,以每10年−0.72 d速度提前。秋季叶变色期表现为推迟,秦皇岛紫薇叶变色期以每10年1.05 d速度推迟,北京地区植物叶变色期以每10年0.12~0.49 d的速度推迟。SW模型对春季物候期模拟效果优于对秋季物候期的模拟,且乔木模拟效果略优于灌木。该模型对加拿大杨展叶始期模拟最为准确,决定系数(R^(2))为0.958,均方根误差(RMSE)为3.5 d;灌木中对紫丁香开花始期模拟效果最优,其R^(2)为0.942,RMSE为3.6 d。与春季物候期模拟相比,秋季叶变色期的模拟偏差较大,R^(2)仅为0.030~0.574。【结论】在过去的50年内,随着温度的升高,多数站点春季物候期表现出提前趋势,秋季物候期则表现为推迟,在物种间和区域间的变化存在差异。SW模型适用于不同生活型物种的物候期模拟且模拟效果差异不显著;该模型对不同物候期的模拟效果不同,其中展叶始期和开花始期的模拟最为准确,其次是叶芽开放期,叶变色期模拟准确度则最低。这表明仅考虑温度因子的SW模型不能真实模拟秋季物候期,应耦合光周期和降水等因子改进模型[Objective]Under the global warming,the study of phenology is critical in carbon cycle of the terrestrial ecosystem.Phenology is sensitive to climate change,therefore climatic warming is one of the main factors impacting spring and autumn phenological phases.Simulating spring phenological phase had got some similar conclusions,while the leaf coloring date still needs to be explored.This study will contribute to develop phenology model and the study on phenological phase.[Method]In this study,we used 10 species in 10 sites to examine the phenological data(leaf bud opening date,leaf out date,first flowering date and leaf coloring date)and meteorological data,and evaluated the accuracy and applicability of spring warming(SW)model.The changing trends of temperature and phenology were analyzed.In addition,the error between the simulated and observed phenological information from the biological characteristics of plants was explored.Based on the observed phenological and meteorological data,the parameters of SW model were estimated.Internal and cross checks were used to assess the validity of SW model.[Result]During the past 50 years,temperature of all sites showed an upward trend.Except for Luoyang site in Henan Province of northern China and Dezhou site in Shandong Province of eastern China,spring phenological phase advanced significantly in other sites.Especially,the first flowering date of Lagerstroemia indica in Tai’an of Shandong Province advanced most significantly at a speed of−4.96 d per decade.In Beijing,the leaf bud opening date of Ginkgo biloba advanced least significantly by−0.72 d per decade.In autumn,the leaf coloring date delayed,and it delayed at a speed of 0.12 to 0.49 d per decade in Beijing region.In Qinhuangdao,Hebei Province of northern China,the leaf coloring date of Lagerstroemia indica delayed by 1.05 d per decade.Model performance was assessed according to the root mean square error(RMSE)and the coefficient of determination(R^(2)).SW model performed better in simulating spring phenologic

关 键 词：SW模型 木本植物 春季物候期 秋季物候期 

分 类 号：S567.1[农业科学—中草药栽培] Q142.2[农业科学—作物学]